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Prediction markets for Alan Turing Institute

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32%chance

22099359

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4809

127

In what year will artificial intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?

Jun 20, 4:02 AMJan 1, 5:00 PM

6015910

OptionProbability

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2045-2050

40

26

15

12

8

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?

Oct 11, 5:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

10110673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3917

1923

In what year will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?

Sep 30, 7:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

513749

OptionProbability

2030-2049

2025-2029

2050-2074

2075-2099

Other

55

20

19

5

1

Will Artificial intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2050?

Oct 1, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84%chance

413487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

330

100

Will a conscious computer be built before 2050?

Nov 12, 9:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.32%chance

131187

OptionVotes

NO

YES

858

36

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 12:50 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

7.18%chance

12858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

395

76

Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2030?

Dec 23, 2:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.98%chance

4549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

491

20

Will a human brain (mind) be successfully uploaded into a computer before 2040?

Dec 6, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.81%chance

9293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

192

65

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 12:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.81%chance

7195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

56

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2040?

Jun 9, 5:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41%chance

452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2075?

Jan 6, 10:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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