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Prediction markets for Alan Turing Institute

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

97%chance

377226100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5064

2

In what year will artificial intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?

Jun 20, 4:02 AMJan 1, 5:00 PM

8385586

OptionProbability

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2045-2050

98

1

0

0

0

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?

Oct 11, 5:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

96.98%chance

13061823

OptionVotes

NO

YES

19704

1249

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark?

Jun 21, 5:30 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

1814872

OptionProbability

2026-2027

2028-2029

2030-2031

2032-2033

2034-2035

2036-2037

2038-2039

99

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will a human brain (mind) be successfully uploaded into a computer before 2075?

Dec 6, 5:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.93%chance

151753

OptionVotes

NO

YES

534

253

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Feb 7, 1:33 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

91702

OptionProbability

2027

2029

2028

2030-2034

2026

2025

51

16

14

14

4

1

Will a conscious computer be built before 2050?

Nov 12, 9:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.32%chance

131187

OptionVotes

NO

YES

858

36

Will a human brain (mind) be successfully uploaded into a computer before 2050?

Dec 6, 5:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.21%chance

8465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

84

In what year will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths?

Dec 25, 9:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

13380

OptionProbability

2075-2099

Never

2045-2049

2025-2029

2050-2074

2030-2034

2040-2044

2035-2039

30

19

13

10

10

8

6

4

Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2045?

Dec 23, 2:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.25%chance

7235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

227

44

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?

Feb 7, 12:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.51%chance

4219

OptionVotes

NO

YES

199

193

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2100?

Jun 10, 1:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.86%chance

7136

OptionVotes

NO

YES

142

70

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