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Prediction markets for Alan Turing Institute

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31%chance

18679660

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4803

133

In what year will artificial intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?

Jun 20, 4:02 AMJan 1, 5:00 PM

5713832

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?

Oct 11, 5:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.21%chance

10010501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3855

1987

Will a conscious computer be built before 2050?

Nov 12, 9:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60%chance

121112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

783

71

In what year will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths?

Dec 25, 9:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8338

OptionProbability

2075-2099

Never

2045-2049

2050-2074

2030-2034

2040-2044

2035-2039

2025-2029

31

22

14

11

7

7

5

3

Will a human brain (mind) be successfully uploaded into a computer before 2050?

Dec 6, 5:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.86%chance

7315

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

80

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2030?

Jun 9, 5:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21%chance

6102

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

52

Will a human brain (mind) be successfully uploaded into a computer before 2100?

Dec 6, 5:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.53%chance

584

OptionVotes

NO

YES

159

63

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2100?

Jun 10, 1:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.38%chance

568

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

83

Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2050?

Dec 23, 2:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.67%chance

257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2040?

Jun 9, 5:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.46%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2075?

Jun 10, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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