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Prediction markets for Alan Turing Institute

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62%chance

266122370

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4882

37

In what year will artificial intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?

Jun 20, 4:02 AMJan 1, 5:00 PM

6418644

OptionProbability

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2045-2050

54

19

11

9

6

In what year will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?

Sep 30, 7:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6713340

OptionProbability

2025-2029

2030-2049

2050-2074

2075-2099

Other

60

33

5

1

0

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?

Oct 11, 5:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.66%chance

10511871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3443

2500

Will Artificial intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2050?

Oct 1, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.4%chance

423497

OptionVotes

NO

YES

284

110

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark?

Jun 21, 5:30 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

133073

OptionProbability

2026-2027

2028-2029

2030-2031

2032-2033

2034-2035

2036-2037

2038-2039

73

10

4

3

3

3

3

Will a human brain (mind) be successfully uploaded into a computer before 2075?

Dec 6, 5:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.93%chance

151753

OptionVotes

NO

YES

534

253

Will a conscious computer be built before 2050?

Nov 12, 9:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.32%chance

131187

OptionVotes

NO

YES

858

36

Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2045?

Dec 23, 2:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.92%chance

6230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

222

45

Will a human brain (mind) be successfully uploaded into a computer before 2035?

Jan 8, 1:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.83%chance

4177

OptionVotes

YES

NO

261

38

Will a human brain (mind) be successfully uploaded into a computer before 2045?

Dec 6, 5:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.64%chance

7104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2035?

Jun 9, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.28%chance

6100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

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