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Prediction markets for Alchemy

In 2025, will a Magic: The Gathering card be banned within 2 weeks of becoming legal in a format?

Dec 17, 10:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.25%chance

155299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5459

183

In 2025, will a Magic: The Gathering card be banned within 4 weeks of becoming legal in a format?

Dec 18, 3:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.59%chance

11806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1506

664

Which DoE Reactor Pilot Program reactors will achieve criticality by 2026-07-04?

Aug 13, 10:38 PMJul 8, 11:59 PM

4520

OptionProbability

Valar Atomics Inc.

Oklo Inc. (one or both projects)

Aalo Atomics Inc.

Antares Nuclear Inc.

Atomic Alchemy Inc.

Deep Fission Inc.

Last Energy Inc.

Natura Resources LLC

Radiant Industries Inc.

Terrestrial Energy Inc.

Oklo Inc. (both projects)

59

45

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

31

Will Dome (YC startup) succeed before 2027?

Oct 23, 9:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.4%chance

4500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1142

876

Which DoE Reactor Pilot Program reactors will achieve criticality by 2026-12-31?

Aug 13, 10:43 PMJan 7, 11:59 PM

2279

OptionProbability

Valar Atomics Inc.

Oklo Inc. (one or both projects)

Aalo Atomics Inc.

Antares Nuclear Inc.

Atomic Alchemy Inc.

Deep Fission Inc.

Last Energy Inc.

Natura Resources LLC

Radiant Industries Inc.

Terrestrial Energy Inc.

Oklo Inc. (both projects)

92

55

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

45

Marathon Fusion gold alchemy preprint published by the end of 2025?

Jul 19, 3:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.92%chance

5157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

689

519

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