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Prediction markets for ALEX

Will any charges be filed against a ICE/CBP agent who shot Alex Pretti? (Minneapolis)

Jan 25, 2:02 AMJan 1, 3:01 AM

389012

OptionProbability

Manslaughter

No Charges Filed

Other or Lesser Charges

Federal Civil Rights Violation

Murder

47

38

33

22

9

Will Alex O'Connor convert to Christinanity before 2027?

Oct 25, 11:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4%chance

175978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

490

20

Will Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross still be reporting to Alex Wang in June 2026?

Jun 20, 1:12 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

7.37%chance

113845

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3961

408

Will Apple VP of Finance Alex Roman receive any legal penalty for “lying under oath"?

May 1, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:04 AM

15.77%chance

242953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2311

433

Will "Update on the Alex Bores campaign" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 27, 8:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

3.25%chance

62931

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3885

802

Alex Honnold fails to climb safely through 2035

Jun 6, 11:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

22.22%chance

262046

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1334

835

Alex from PWF Stock (Permanent)

Nov 16, 4:30 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

311343

OptionProbability

NO

YES

722

546

Will "Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 20, 5:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.7%chance

41225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1584

928

Will Alex Honnold ever stop doing free-solo ascents?

Jan 22, 12:54 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

65.83%chance

24897

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1229

689

John McTone (Alex) Stock

Mar 3, 12:56 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.16%chance

16884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

979

Will Alex Honnold live to the age of 50?

Aug 31, 7:02 PMAug 17, 10:59 PM

70.42%chance

22813

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

954

Alex Stock

Apr 11, 5:36 AM

6253

OptionProbability

YES

NO

108

93

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