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Prediction markets for Alexa

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.6%chance

10842720

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11866

8858

Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?

Feb 14, 5:26 PMFeb 14, 5:23 PM

65.08%chance

18841305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1365

733

Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?

Jun 18, 3:15 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10.34%chance

10523879

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

452

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

10913611

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2950

638

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) become president of the United States before she turns 70?

Mar 27, 5:55 PMOct 14, 3:59 AM

16.66%chance

292574

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1971

1967

Who will win the 2026 House election in NY-10 (or equivalent)?

Oct 29, 6:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

161954

OptionProbability

Brad Lander

Dan Goldman

Alexa Aviles

Yuh-Line Niou

Cameron Kasky

Other

99

0

0

0

0

0

Will AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ever run for president?

Jan 16, 9:59 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

72.87%chance

331942

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1094

952

Will an AI ballot measure in any state be endorsed in a Scott Alexander post by the 2026 elections?

Dec 14, 1:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61.88%chance

7560

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1274

785

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

893

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate before 2029?

Mar 14, 11:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.12%chance

7466

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

866

Will Scott Alexander post another article with a title that matches "The [disease] of [emotion]" before 2028?

Jan 1, 9:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.07%chance

6425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

784

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

988

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