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Top stories

Amazon to Pay New York Times Up to $25 Million a Year for AI Use

Amazon to Pay New York Times Up to $25 Million a Year for AI Use

Authors

14

3 days ago

Prediction markets for Alexa

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.25%chance

183266085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17639

7122

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Mar 18, 6:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.47%chance

335126206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6451

596

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.99%chance

10741945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11036

9044

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80%chance

10712835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3243

555

Will Amazon release a version of Alexa with GPT4-level intelligence by the end of 2025?

Jul 30, 5:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.23%chance

676386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

920

Will GPT-4 be integrated into mainstream virtual assistant technologies (Alexa or Siri), by 2025?

Jan 15, 2:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.08%chance

503567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

875

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) become president of the United States before she turns 70?

Mar 27, 5:55 PMOct 14, 3:59 AM

16.66%chance

292574

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1971

1967

Will AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ever run for president?

Jan 16, 9:59 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

72.01%chance

311518

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

964

Which incumbent voice assistant will be first to incorporate an LLM?

Apr 5, 11:09 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

141013

OptionProbability

Google Assistant

Siri

Cortana

Alexa

80

11

8

2

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.75%chance

11423

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

975

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

988

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate before 2029?

Mar 14, 11:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.55%chance

5130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

970

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Jul 30, 2025
Jul 30, 2025
AI Modeling
AI Products
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Amazon to Pay New York Times Up to $25 Million a Year for AI Use
Authors
14
3 days ago

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