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Prediction markets for Alexa

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.29%chance

194280513

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11088

9368

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Mar 18, 6:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

1.52%chance

348176056

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15762

192

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.02%chance

10841949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11019

9048

Will Amazon release a version of Alexa with GPT4-level intelligence by the end of 2025?

Jul 30, 5:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.05%chance

10216670

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

960

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

10913611

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2950

638

Will GPT-4 be integrated into mainstream virtual assistant technologies (Alexa or Siri), by 2025?

Jan 15, 2:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.53%chance

514717

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2230

357

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) become president of the United States before she turns 70?

Mar 27, 5:55 PMOct 14, 3:59 AM

16.66%chance

292574

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1971

1967

Will AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ever run for president?

Jan 16, 9:59 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

74.52%chance

321918

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1161

928

Who will win the 2026 House election in NY-10?

Oct 29, 6:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9838

OptionProbability

Brad Lander

Dan Goldman

Cameron Kasky

Other

Alexa Aviles

Yuh-Line Niou

70

28

1

1

0

0

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

893

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate before 2029?

Mar 14, 11:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.12%chance

7466

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

866

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

988

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