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Prediction markets for ALGO

Will a polynomial time factoring algorithm be found by 2035?

Sep 6, 8:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.96%chance

512583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2216

1303

By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?

Nov 18, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

64.14%chance

282011

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1130

654

Will Andy Weir write a work titled "The Last Algorithm"? (before 2030)

May 21, 2:29 PMJan 2, 2:28 PM

22.27%chance

141523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1868

535

Will a sorting algorithm faster than n*log(n) be found before 2030?

Jun 19, 12:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8.57%chance

191493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1866

858

By 2030, will there be an bottom-up trained AI/bot in Runescape that reaches Combat Level 50 (bypassing Runescape's natural bot-detection algorithms)?

Jan 1, 7:36 AMJan 1, 4:01 PM

71.03%chance

451249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

814

Will quantum computing lead to a scramble to quickly update encryption algorithms?

Jan 30, 10:23 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

45.74%chance

301129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

798

Will any AI or algorithm be elected as a state official by 2040 with 10.000 or more votes?

Dec 16, 4:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28%chance

291044

OptionVotes

NO

YES

989

973

Will there be a more sample-efficient pretraining algorithm than next token prediction for NLP before 2027?

Jun 3, 2:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.43%chance

10623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

876

If TikTok is sold, will the algorithm be included in the sale?

Apr 25, 9:14 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

30.39%chance

16550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

957

Will "My PhD thesis: Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Mar 18, 6:04 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

44.06%chance

13386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

737

An algorithm exists that can run on a Game Boy Advance that will pass one of the AGI tests in the linked question

Oct 17, 4:18 AMMar 26, 6:59 AM

40.78%chance

4235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

830

Google algorithm update causes 50% SERP volatility by November 15, 2025?

Aug 5, 10:00 PMNov 15, 9:59 PM

54.8%chance

2121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

908

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