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Will a polynomial time factoring algorithm be found by 2035?

Sep 6, 8:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.96%chance

512583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2216

1303

By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?

Nov 18, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55.84%chance

292111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1230

503

Will Andy Weir write a work titled "The Last Algorithm"? (before 2030)

May 21, 2:29 PMJan 2, 2:28 PM

19.03%chance

201768

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2063

485

Will a sorting algorithm faster than n*log(n) be found before 2030?

Jun 19, 12:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8.57%chance

191493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1866

858

By 2030, will there be an bottom-up trained AI/bot in Runescape that reaches Combat Level 50 (bypassing Runescape's natural bot-detection algorithms)?

Jan 1, 7:36 AMJan 1, 4:01 PM

71.03%chance

451249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

814

Will quantum computing lead to a scramble to quickly update encryption algorithms?

Jan 30, 10:23 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

45.74%chance

301129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

798

Will any AI or algorithm be elected as a state official by 2040 with 10.000 or more votes?

Dec 16, 4:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.63%chance

301094

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

970

Will there be a more sample-efficient pretraining algorithm than next token prediction for NLP before 2027?

Jun 3, 2:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.43%chance

10623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

876

Will "The nature of LLM algorithmic progress (v2)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 12, 2:17 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

35.82%chance

2269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1188

347

Will "The brain is a machine that runs an algorithm" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 23, 5:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

An algorithm exists that can run on a Game Boy Advance that will pass one of the AGI tests in the linked question

Oct 17, 4:18 AMMar 26, 6:59 AM

40.78%chance

4235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

830

Will "METR Research Update: Algorithmic vs. Holisti..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 28, 10:49 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.97%chance

224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

1000

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