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Prediction markets for ALGO

Will a polynomial time factoring algorithm be found by 2035?

Sep 6, 8:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.96%chance

512583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2216

1303

By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?

Nov 18, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.97%chance

282061

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1180

572

Will Andy Weir write a work titled "The Last Algorithm"? (before 2030)

May 21, 2:29 PMJan 2, 2:28 PM

19.8%chance

191718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2013

497

If TikTok is sold, will the algorithm be included in the sale?

Apr 25, 9:14 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

65.78%chance

191400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1541

337

By 2030, will there be an bottom-up trained AI/bot in Runescape that reaches Combat Level 50 (bypassing Runescape's natural bot-detection algorithms)?

Jan 1, 7:36 AMJan 1, 4:01 PM

71.03%chance

451249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

814

Will quantum computing lead to a scramble to quickly update encryption algorithms?

Jan 30, 10:23 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

45.74%chance

301129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

798

Will any AI or algorithm be elected as a state official by 2040 with 10.000 or more votes?

Dec 16, 4:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.63%chance

301094

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

970

Will there be a more sample-efficient pretraining algorithm than next token prediction for NLP before 2027?

Jun 3, 2:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.43%chance

10623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

876

Will "My PhD thesis: Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Mar 18, 6:04 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

44.06%chance

13386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

737

An algorithm exists that can run on a Game Boy Advance that will pass one of the AGI tests in the linked question

Oct 17, 4:18 AMMar 26, 6:59 AM

40.78%chance

4235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

830

Median absolute difference between SSBMRank 2025 and AlgoRank 2025 under 3.5?

Sep 5, 3:35 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

42.7%chance

3184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1158

863

Average absolute difference between SSBMRank 2025 and AlgoRank 2025 under 5?

Sep 5, 3:37 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

50.25%chance

227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

995

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