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Prediction markets for Alibaba
If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?
Jan 21, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8516349
OptionProbability
17
17
13
13
10
10
7
6
5
1
1
OptionProbability
38
34
10
7
3
3
3
3
Will Jack MA return as a senior executive to Alibaba by 2026 year end?
Jan 4, 2:36 PMDec 11, 2:59 AM
14.93%chance
796414
OptionVotes
6335
1831
OptionProbability
78
70
49
0
0
0
0
0
0
Who will release the first model to be credibly accused of being responsible for at least 100 deaths?
Sep 30, 4:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
292966
OptionProbability
42
19
9
8
5
5
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
OptionProbability
100
70
51
46
22
20
17
17
14
Which company has the best AI model end of March 2026? (LMArena)
Jan 3, 10:59 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM
81790
OptionProbability
81
6
5
4
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
62
16
8
5
2
2
2
2
Will Daniel Zhang (CEO of Alibaba) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
Apr 27, 2:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
15.48%chance
6125
OptionVotes
217
97
Will Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026?
Jan 20, 2:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
60.33%chance
380
OptionVotes
123
81
Which LLM Maker will hold the top Safety Score for Spiral-Bench on https://eqbench.com/spiral-bench.html on Jan1, 2027?
Jan 6, 7:30 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
160
OptionProbability
34
31
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
Will Alibaba ($BABA) trade higher or lower by the end of 2033, compared to the end of 2023.
Feb 2, 5:13 AMFeb 1, 10:59 PM
231
OptionProbability
58
15
13
13