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Prediction markets for Align Technology

Will AI take over the world by 2100?

Mar 26, 12:12 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

49.16%chance

414477

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

767

Will Manifold hire me in 2025?

Feb 21, 9:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.93%chance

172868

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2215

451

Has Israel used recordings of crying children or distressed women to lure Palestinians out of hiding?

Apr 18, 2:44 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

14.42%chance

311958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

838

Will AI regulations that include mechanisms for uncovering AI deception be adopted in the U.S. before 2035?

Nov 1, 1:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

82.41%chance

191003

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

979

Will 10% of individuals rely on AI for their clothing choices by 2026?

Aug 10, 11:50 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

4.47%chance

11471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

641

175

When will a medical AI bot be authorized to make independent medical diagnoses?

Jan 29, 5:29 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

9277

OptionProbability

After 2032

Between 2028 and 2032

Before 2028

53

32

15

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2026?

Jun 1, 6:48 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

51.73%chance

6158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

67

If we had an AI in the 2020s that could exactly duplicate a strawberry, would that destroy the world? (In 2050-hindsight)

Feb 22, 4:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50.91%chance

7150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

156

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?

Jun 1, 6:47 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.62%chance

587

OptionVotes

NO

YES

196

74

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2030?

Jun 1, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

79.39%chance

782

OptionVotes

NO

YES

137

36

Will Japan produce hydrogen with nuclear power before 2031?

May 9, 8:02 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

71.51%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

158

63

Will ASI (if it is created and also does not wipe out humanity) care about Morphological freedom?

Jul 28, 11:38 PMJan 1, 12:33 AM

49.87%chance

359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

997

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