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Prediction markets for Align Technology

Will AI take over the world by 2100?

Mar 26, 12:12 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

47.61%chance

414504

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1114

796

Has Israel used recordings of crying children or distressed women to lure Palestinians out of hiding?

Apr 18, 2:44 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

9.72%chance

404085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2058

757

Will AI regulations that include mechanisms for uncovering AI deception be adopted in the U.S. before 2035?

Nov 1, 1:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

82.41%chance

191003

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

979

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

When will I, the creator of this market, personally purchase a humanoid robot for under $20,000 USD?

Apr 20, 6:45 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

21531

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

57

39

30

Is Anthropic woke?

Feb 26, 1:34 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM

83.78%chance

9462

OptionVotes

NO

YES

227

44

Will some piece of AI capabilities research done in 2023 or after be net-positive for AI alignment research?

Mar 5, 1:05 PMMar 5, 11:59 PM

81.46%chance

7404

OptionVotes

NO

YES

229

116

Will Japan produce hydrogen with nuclear power before 2031?

May 9, 8:02 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

61.3%chance

4165

OptionVotes

NO

YES

126

79

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2028?

Jun 1, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

43.99%chance

5142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

99

Will U.S. Army Col. Karl Nell ever claim under oath that aliens exist?

Oct 21, 1:40 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

21.53%chance

6137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

53

Will ASI (if it is created and also does not wipe out humanity) care about Morphological freedom?

Jul 28, 11:38 PMJan 1, 12:33 AM

48.88%chance

479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

978

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2029?

Jun 1, 6:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

82.14%chance

265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

41

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