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Prediction markets for Align Technology

Will Manifold hire me in 2025?

Feb 21, 9:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13%chance

234498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2587

387

Will AI take over the world by 2100?

Mar 26, 12:12 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

49.16%chance

414477

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

767

Has Israel used recordings of crying children or distressed women to lure Palestinians out of hiding?

Apr 18, 2:44 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

14.42%chance

311958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

838

Will AI regulations that include mechanisms for uncovering AI deception be adopted in the U.S. before 2035?

Nov 1, 1:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

82.41%chance

191003

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

979

When will I, the creator of this market, personally purchase a humanoid robot for under $20,000 USD?

Apr 20, 6:45 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

21531

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

57

39

30

Will 10% of individuals rely on AI for their clothing choices by 2026?

Aug 10, 11:50 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

4.47%chance

11471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

641

175

When will a medical AI bot be authorized to make independent medical diagnoses?

Jan 29, 5:29 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

9277

OptionProbability

After 2032

Between 2028 and 2032

Before 2028

53

32

15

Will Japan produce hydrogen with nuclear power before 2031?

May 9, 8:02 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

61.3%chance

4165

OptionVotes

NO

YES

126

79

If we had an AI in the 2020s that could exactly duplicate a strawberry, would that destroy the world? (In 2050-hindsight)

Feb 22, 4:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

53.76%chance

8160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

166

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2026?

Jun 1, 6:48 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

51.73%chance

6158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

67

Will U.S. Army Col. Karl Nell ever claim under oath that aliens exist?

Oct 21, 1:40 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

20.46%chance

6130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

197

51

Will ASI (if it is created and also does not wipe out humanity) care about Morphological freedom?

Jul 28, 11:38 PMJan 1, 12:33 AM

48.88%chance

479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

978

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