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Prediction markets for Align Technology

Will AI take over the world by 2100?

Mar 26, 12:12 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

49.16%chance

414477

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

767

Has Israel used recordings of crying children or distressed women to lure Palestinians out of hiding?

Apr 18, 2:44 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

10%chance

394035

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2008

763

When will Starship land on Mars?

Jul 21, 12:54 AMJan 21, 12:44 AM

171401

OptionProbability

Later than 2032

2031

Never

2029

2032

2028

2030

2026

2027

Other

48

18

16

9

3

2

2

1

1

1

Will AI regulations that include mechanisms for uncovering AI deception be adopted in the U.S. before 2035?

Nov 1, 1:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

82.41%chance

191003

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

979

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?

Jun 1, 6:47 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.62%chance

6459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

196

74

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

When will a medical AI bot be authorized to make independent medical diagnoses?

Jan 29, 5:29 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

9277

OptionProbability

After 2032

Between 2028 and 2032

Before 2028

53

32

15

Will Japan produce hydrogen with nuclear power before 2031?

May 9, 8:02 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

61.3%chance

4165

OptionVotes

NO

YES

126

79

If we had an AI in the 2020s that could exactly duplicate a strawberry, would that destroy the world? (In 2050-hindsight)

Feb 22, 4:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

53.76%chance

8160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

166

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2028?

Jun 1, 6:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

85.2%chance

5137

OptionVotes

NO

YES

208

45

Will ASI (if it is created and also does not wipe out humanity) care about Morphological freedom?

Jul 28, 11:38 PMJan 1, 12:33 AM

48.88%chance

479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

978

How many C919 airliners will Comac deliver by 2045?

May 29, 12:00 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

70.97%chance

344

OptionProbability

NO

YES

300

257

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