OptionProbability
Ron Weasley is a redhead
Harry Potter is white
At least one named character from the book has their race changed
Snape is black
An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show
Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British
Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)
Fred and George are twins irl
Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode
McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)
Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen
A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen
A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)
Premieres in 2026
Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen
Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes
Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him
Malfoy has white blonde hair
The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured
Arthur Weasley is shown on screen
There’s a scene set before Harry is born
Peeves is a reoccurring character
JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer
It's woke
Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2
A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry
mandrake root on screen
80% or higher on rotten tomatoes
It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year
Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name
An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen
Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits
A house elf is shown on screen
Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented
The Quibbler is shown or mentioned
At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped
Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot
An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show
Premieres on strongly symbolic date (like July 31, 21.12)
Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures
The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying
The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.
Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s
"Voldemort" has a silent "t"
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3
Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings
Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1
VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE
It ends on a cliff hanger
The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word
Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1
Dobby makes an appearance
At least one of the actors is transgender
90% or higher on rotten tomatoes
Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode
Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting
Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode
Hermione is Indian
We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts
Features an explicitly transgender character
Hermione is white
JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance
actor in the show wins an Emmy for acting
Premieres in 2027
Zendaya is cast in the show
Smartphone shown within Hogwarts
Awkwafina is cast in the show
Hermione is black
Voldemort is a woman
Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability
There will be seven CGI dwarves
Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity
Keir Starmer is in it
set in 2025
set in the 2020s
Yudkowsky makes an appearance
Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender
We get AGI before it premieres
Hagrid is black
Gandalf is black
Adolf Hitler is mentioned
Fred and George have the same actor
HPMOR is referenced
One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.
99
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18
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5
5
3
3
3
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3
3
2
2
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1227
435
OptionProbability
[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)
[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)
[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)
[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)
[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)
[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)
[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)
[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)
[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)
[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)
[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)
[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)
[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)
[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)
[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)
[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)
[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)
[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)
[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)
[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)
[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)
[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)
[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)
[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)
[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)
[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)
[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)
[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)
[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)
[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)
[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)
[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)
[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)
[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)
[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)
[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)
[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)
[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)
[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)
[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)
[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)
[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)
[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)
[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)
[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)
[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)
[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)
[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)
[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)
[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)
[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)
[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)
[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)
[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)
[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)
[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)
[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)
[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)
[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)
[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)
[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)
[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)
[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)
[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)
[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)
[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)
[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)
[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)
[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)
[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)
[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)
[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)
[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)
[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)
[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)
[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)
[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)
[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)
[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)
[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)
[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)
[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)
[Foreign Policy] The war in Ukraine ends in Trump’s first 90 days (Nate: 25%)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
95
92
90
89
88
88
86
85
85
84
84
79
79
79
78
78
76
76
73
72
71
70
68
66
64
62
61
61
60
57
57
52
50
48
45
45
45
44
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44
41
41
41
40
39
39
37
37
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36
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26
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25
25
23
19
19
19
19
18
17
17
16
15
14
14
14
14
14
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11
10
9
9
8
7
5
5
3
3
0
0
OptionProbability
Tiger - Panthera tigris
Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus
Elephant - Loxodonta africana 🥈🥈
Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri
Lion - Panthera leo 🥈🥉
Sea Otter - Enhydra lutris
Honey Badger - Mellivora capensis 🥈
[⚔️Frontrunner] Polar Bear - Ursus maritimus 🥈
Wolverine - Gulo gulo
Cape Buffalo - Syncerus caffer caffer
Yellow-Lipped Sea Krait - Laticauda colubrina
Blue Whale - Balaenoptera musculus
Common Bed Bug - Cimex lectularius
Giant Nematode - Placentonema gigantissima
Pompeii Worm - Alvinella pompejana
Sperm Whale - Physeter macrocephalus
Giant Pacific Octopus - Enteroctopus dofleini 🥉
Sonoran Desert Sidewinder - Crotalus cerastes cercobombus
Brown Rat - Rattus norvegicus 🥉
House Mouse - Mus musculus domesticus
Ice Worm - mesenchytraeus solifugus
Sulfur Cave Molly - Poecilia sulphuraria
Meerkat - Suricata suricatta 🥉
Housefly - Musca domestica 🥉
Feral pigeon - Columba livia urbana
Coyote - Canis latrans
Great black-backed gull - Larus marinus 🥉
Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx 🥉
Western lowland gorilla - Gorilla gorilla gorilla 🥈
Eastern lowland gorilla - Gorilla beringei graueri
Brownthroated three-toed sloth - Bradypus variegatus 🥉
Bornean orangutan - Pongo pygmaeus
[⚔️Underdog] Cat - Felis catus 🥉
❌Defeated: Penis snake - Atretochoana eiselti [beat by Cat]
❌Defeated: Hippopotamus - Hippopotamus amphibius 🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Brown Rat]
❌Defeated: Dog - Canis familiaris 🥉🥈 [beat by Leopard seal]
❌Defeated: Giant Panda - Ailuropoda melanoleuca [beat by Polar Bear]
❌Defeated: Axolotl - Ambystoma mexicanum [beat by Great black-backed gull]
❌Defeated: Orca - Orcinus orca [beat by Housefly]
❌Defeated: Hotwheels sisyphus spider - Hotwheels sisyphus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Saltwater Crocodile - Crocodylus porosus 🥈🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Red Fox]
🚫Ineligible: Water bear - Milnesium tardigradum
❌Defeated: Ping-Pong Tree Sponge - Chondrocladia concrescens 🥉 [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
🚫Ineligible: human [I'm shortening this]
🚫Ineligible: Tardigrade (LFG)
Great White Shark - Carcharodon carcharias [beat by Lion]
🚫Ineligible: [This animal was edited in bad faith]
❌Defeated: Wolf - Canis lupus [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
❌Defeated: Red Fox - Vulpes vulpes 🥉🥈 [beat by Giant Pacific Octopus]
❌Defeated: Cliff Swallow - Petrochelidon pyrrhonota [beat by Elephant]
❌Defeated: Platypus - Ornithorhynchus anatinus 🥉🥉 [beat by Western Lowland Gorilla]
❌Defeated: Haast's Eagle - Hieraaetus moorei [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
❌Defeated: Flightless Elephant Bird - Aepyornis maximus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Prehistoric Elephant - Palaeoloxodon namadicus [beat by Dog]🥉🥉🥈
❌Defeated: Great evening bat - Ia io [beat by Lion]
❌Defeated: Funny valentine spider - Funny valentine [beat by Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian]
❌Defeated: Yi qi dinosaur - Yi qi [beat by Elephant]
❌Defeated: Aha ha wasp - Aha ha [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Colossal Whale - Perucetus colossus [beat by Meerkat]
❌Defeated: Cuban Cockroach - Panchlora nivea [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Panther Chameleon - Furcifer pardalis [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Giant Dragonfly - Meganeuropsis permiana [beat by Red Fox]
❌Defeated: Triceratops - Triceratops horridus [beat by Red Volcano Sponge]
❌Defeated: Giant Pterosaur - Quetzalcoatlus northropi [beat by Ping-Pong Tree Sponge]
❌Defeated: Lesser Flamingo - Phoeniconaias minor [beat by Honey Badger]
❌Defeated: Kiwi - Apteryx australis [beat by Dog]
❌Defeated: Red Volcano Sponge - Acarnus Erithacus 🥉[beat by Platypus]
❌Defeated: Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian - Dermophis donaldtrumpi 🥈[beat by Brownthroated three-toed sloth]
❌Defeated: New World Screwworm - Cochliomyia hominivorax [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Chinese giant salamander - Andrias davidianus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
🚫Ineligible: [edited in bad faith]
❌Defeated: Australopithecus - Australopithecus afarensis [beat by Platypus]
Other
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min
3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour
Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water
Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour
Use tap water instead of fancy RO water
put butter into it
Toast the bread
Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.
Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need
Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)
Half yeast
Bake it with your best friend.
Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread
Bake for 5 more minutes
Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)
Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake
Increase water by 50 g
it needs more salt
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.
Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast
Serve the bread hot
Use Iodized salt
Do a second rise
Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter
don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread
Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance
Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.
Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option
Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top
Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.
Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".
Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour
Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞
put ketchup and cheese on it
Add garlic
Use sourdough instead of yeast
Add slurs to it
Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.
Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.
Get recipe from gemini with experiments done, taste preference, then confirm it with chatgpt for final suggestion.
Make all of the ingredients from scratch.
Make the bread taste good
If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.
throw your recipe into a black box Bayesian hyperparameter optimization framework and iterate as necessary (see the Google Vizier Cookie Recipe paper for example
Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread
Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.
Watch the video
Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video
Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h
Use lemonade instead of water.
Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face
Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0
Throw the bread at a telescope
Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.
Cut bread into loaves before serving
Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving
Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you
Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.
Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference
Taste the bread
put oats on top of the dough just before baking, press them in so they don't fall off
Buy chemical bread improvers
Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.
Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price
Add cheese inside it and also sausage
Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug
Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)
Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread
While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana
Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency
Add an amount of non-smoked paprika equal to the current salt content
Strawberry jelly filling
Use a convection oven/setting
Make banana bread
Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.
Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.
Eat it slowly and focus on the taste
Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Keep the bread in a high quality expensive beeswax coated textile bag
Make the bread great again
Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread
Make the bread edible then throw it in
Drink vodka while eating the bread
Do FOLDED
Quit Manifold into the bread.
Kill the bread into Manifold.
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Bake for 15 more minutes
Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix
Replace AP with bread flour and cruelly mix the dough in the mixer until elastic and not sticky
Add a tablespoon of sugar
Bake one more minute
Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran
Butter resolved yes twice. Double butter again.
replace 10% of flour with farina bona
Follow a recipe online
Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)
Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder
Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.
Add at least 20% chic pea flour or some other type of high protein flour
Only buy ingredients from 7/11.
Knead it only 10 times, keep it round like this number
Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread
Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread
A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.
Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)
Wear a suit while baking the cake.
Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread
Replace salt with sugar
Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)
Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Slowly add sawdust to the bread until your friends start to notice.
Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.
Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating
Soak the finished product in vinegar for 24 hours
Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.
Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.
Add caffeine to the bread
Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.
Improve the bread
Quadruple salt
Bake your social security number into it.
Bake one fewer minute
Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.
Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available
Test/filter the water for heavy metals
Eat the bread in front of the White House.
Implement all options that resolved NO
Make the bread inedible then throw it out.
Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump
Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump
Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.
make the bread bounce
Implementing every element listed below.
Just make donuts instead
Bake it in an easy bake kids oven
Use a plastic baking sheet.
Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold
Double oven temperature
Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.
Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.
Light it on fire with birthday candles.
Bake it with a microwave
Halve oven temperature
Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold
Step on it
Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it
Bake America Great Again
Sacrifice a lamb
Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice
Bake in a cat and a dog
Explode it:
5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand
say 6 7 67 times before making the bread
Take a fat dump in the dough
Sit in dough 24 hrs
Replace flour with flowers
Let dough sit 24 hrs
Mix half sodium/potassium chloride
Add 2g? of baking soda
Bake in rectangular tin
Add 50g vital wheat gluten
double yeast
halve salt
Double salt
Add 2tsp olive oil
Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait
Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through
Do not mix salt and yeast in water together
Autolyse 20 minutes
Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge
Think positive thoughts before tasting
Put fork in microwave
Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread
Add 2tbsp vanilla extract
Play classical music while baking
Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread
Add a pinch of sugar
Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven
Eat the bread with friends
Bake vegimite into it.
Bake vodka into it
Bake it in the country you were born in.
Let dough sit 48 hrs
Resolve this option YES while eating the bread
Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket
Eat the bread over the course of a week.
Bake for 5 fewer minutes
Use 50% whole grain flour
Bake the bread with love
Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose
Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)
More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.
Resolve this option NO while eating the bread
Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)
Add 50g sugar
Add 50g honey
Swap 200ml water for milk
Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.
Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.
Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content
Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.
Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump
Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.
Add banana
Add poppy seeds
Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)
Only use tap water from specifically New York City
Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it
Brush on an egg wash
100
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100
89
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3
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2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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0
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0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
33880
2952
OptionProbability
Assassin's Creed Shadows
Red Dead Redemption 2
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33
Halo: The Master Chief Collection
Call of Duty: Black Ops 7
Assassin's Creed Mirage
Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024
Crimson Desert
Grand Theft Auto VI
Grand Theft Auto IV
Metal Gear Solid Delta: Snake Eater
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege
Tom Clancy's The Division
Grand Theft Auto V
100
84
79
73
70
69
62
58
50
37
35
32
23
22
OptionVotes
YES
NO
24774
4036
OptionProbability
Kissing
Puts his hand on the small of a woman's back (does not have to be romantic/sexual touch)
Sex is implied but not shown (e.g. Kissing, then fading to black and then waking up in bed together)
Flirts with Moneypenny
Cuddling
Hugging
Kisses (or more) with multiple partners (not necessarily at once)
Committing a crime together
Romantic dinner
Holding hands
Missionary
Say or be told "I love you" (Any language)
Massage
Sexting
Multiple partners (at once)
Spanking (receive or give)
Oral
Gay sex
Anal
Oral (giving)
Oral (receiving)
Pegging
Double Anal Penetration
97
88
80
75
70
65
61
61
51
45
39
33
28
20
13
12
11
9
8
7
7
6
6
OptionProbability
Water
Salt
Potatoes
Soy protein
Black Pepper
Fruit Juice
Green Beans
Coffee
Rice
Onion
Tomatoes
Bacon
Yeast-Leavened Bread
Erythritol
Lima Beans
Yam
Ground Beef
Chicken
Lettuce
Aspartame
98
95
72
71
59
56
52
48
48
47
40
35
34
34
30
30
19
19
18
18
OptionProbability
Demi Vollering
Pauline Ferrand-Prevot
Kasia Niewiadoma-Phinney
Sarah Gigante
Other
Marlen Reusser
Niamh Fisher-Black
Elisa Longo Borghini
Anna van der Breggen
47
25
6
6
6
3
3
2
2
OptionProbability
Springboks (South Africa) win more Tests than NZ
All Blacks (New Zealand) win more Tests than SA
Series Shared / Drawn (Wins are equal)
99
0
0

