Alongside News

MANA MERCH SHOP: Which designs will be added to the mana merch store?

Oct 22, 8:28 PMDec 4, 7:40 PM

10356200

OptionProbability

The Manifold Logo

“Anti gambling gambling club” - by andri

Trustworthy-ish - by Pat Scott

"The Lootbox Lies" - Pat Scott

“Put your Mana where your mouth is” - by MIMIR MAGNVS

Cranes In Form - by Pat Scott

“This meeting could have been a market” - by andri

“Calibrated measures” - by andri

“my waifu / predicts the future" - Pat Scott

“ I just lost mana because of that” - by andri

“It’s not 🤮crypto🤮 it’s play money” - by andri

100

Will the Dallas Mavericks "win" the Luka trade?

Feb 3, 5:39 AMSep 1, 8:59 PM

24.36%chance

2025690

OptionVotes

YES

10819

3069

Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?

Feb 28, 4:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

63%chance

8321826

OptionVotes

YES

1305

766

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jul 15, 7:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.03%chance

9112035

OptionVotes

YES

2562

536

Will Bronny James retire alongside his father LeBron James when that time comes?

Oct 19, 1:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

0.85%chance

175121

OptionVotes

YES

3734

Will Neuralink be available for people without a disability in the US by 2035?

Mar 21, 4:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.94%chance

652900

OptionVotes

YES

1491

500

In three months, will I think setting up this Manifold news reader was worth it?

Oct 21, 2:56 AMJan 21, 2:54 AM

50.53%chance

111652

OptionVotes

YES

10107

9894

Will the United Kingdom attempt to rejoin the EU and Greece demand the Elgin Marbles back to let them? [2033]

Jul 7, 3:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.31%chance

261595

OptionVotes

YES

1205

578

Demis Hassabis still at Google end of 2027?

Aug 8, 1:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.04%chance

201530

OptionVotes

YES

2066

1937

Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?

Nov 13, 7:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.09%chance

141245

OptionVotes

YES

1275

784

Will Hersey's revive the Hershey's Gold candy bar by Jan 1st 2028?

Dec 2, 7:21 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

32.05%chance

14753

OptionVotes

YES

1647

474

Will probabilistic forecasting methodology on mathematical level die, extinct, and cease to exist before 2100?

Nov 3, 8:34 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

2155

OptionProbability

No, impossible and will never extinct or cease to exist

No, remains a foundational pillar of statistics, finance, and science

No, continues to evolve alongside machine learning and neural networks

Yes, replaced by deterministic AI-driven oracle systems

Yes, rendered obsolete by advances in quantum or absolute precision modeling

N/A due to complete civilizational or technological collapse before 2100

Alongside News

Prediction markets for Alongside

Prediction markets for Alongside

Prediction markets for Alongside

MANA MERCH SHOP: Which designs will be added to the mana merch store?

Will the Dallas Mavericks "win" the Luka trade?

Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Will Bronny James retire alongside his father LeBron James when that time comes?

Will Neuralink be available for people without a disability in the US by 2035?

In three months, will I think setting up this Manifold news reader was worth it?

Will the United Kingdom attempt to rejoin the EU and Greece demand the Elgin Marbles back to let them? [2033]

Demis Hassabis still at Google end of 2027?

Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?

Will Hersey's revive the Hershey's Gold candy bar by Jan 1st 2028?

Will probabilistic forecasting methodology on mathematical level die, extinct, and cease to exist before 2100?

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