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Prediction markets for Alpha Data

Will the Flexport internal prediction market on freight rates have alpha (as per their CEO)?

Dec 30, 9:54 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

80.49%chance

401349

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1303

891

When, if ever before 2060, will a long-term suspended animation procedure on humans be developed and shown reliable?

Jan 9, 4:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6362

OptionProbability

Later than 2059 or never (question will close in 2060)

2040-2045

2045-2050

2050-2055

2055-2059

2024-2030

2030-2035

2035-2040

71

6

5

5

5

2

2

2

Will Manifold introduce an AI-based feature that automatically resolves markets by 2030?

Dec 29, 4:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.44%chance

15290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

988

966

Will Gallup, Aella OR authoritative pollster show >1.25x OR <0.8x ratio between Gen Alpha M VS F non-cis rates in 2035?

Nov 18, 4:35 AMNov 17, 11:59 PM

54.53%chance

2105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

913

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.48%chance

451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters by the end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:25 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Provide feedback for my N-of-1 experiment tracker: n1.tools

Nov 15, 4:26 AM

00

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