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Prediction markets for Also

Does Lantern Bioworks' product to prevent cavities also eliminate "morning breath"?

Apr 10, 8:58 PMDec 31, 5:01 AM

31.4%chance

382226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1282

778

Will "New LessWrong Editor! (Also, an update to our..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 15, 1:12 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.27%chance

72018

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2150

883

Conditional on Trump being elected president in 2024, will a Republican also be elected in 2028?

Jan 10, 9:01 PMNov 16, 5:59 AM

39.24%chance

211982

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1126

740

Is @galen also @Hannah and/or @Sperbs?

Mar 30, 5:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.79%chance

16920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1137

909

Will China also kidnap the president of Taiwan in 2026?

Jan 6, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.17%chance

14683

OptionVotes

YES

NO

672

15

If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?

Feb 2, 1:28 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

31%chance

8617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1492

670

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Conditional on uploading tech, will cryopreserved brains also be uploaded by 2100?

Jul 27, 5:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

88.16%chance

9472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

263

90

Will "AIs should also refuse to work on capabilitie..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 28, 1:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.53%chance

2255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1211

969

If Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms, will they also win the Senate?

Jul 29, 5:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

10175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

90

By 2027, will the presidents of the US and China participate in a conversation in which an LLM also participates?

Jan 16, 7:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16%chance

5148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

81

Will ASI (if it is created and also does not wipe out humanity) care about Morphological freedom?

Jul 28, 11:38 PMJan 1, 12:33 AM

48.88%chance

479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

978

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