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Will Jake's replacement at Asterisk Magazine (managing editor) also have a name starting with J?

Oct 22, 9:14 PMDec 31, 10:11 PM

9.63%chance

4240826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30656

3267

Does Lantern Bioworks' product to prevent cavities also eliminate "morning breath"?

Apr 10, 8:58 PMDec 31, 5:01 AM

31.4%chance

382226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1282

778

Conditional on Trump being elected president in 2024, will a Republican also be elected in 2028?

Jan 10, 9:01 PMNov 16, 5:59 AM

40.31%chance

191217

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

717

Is @galen also @Hannah and/or @Sperbs?

Mar 30, 5:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.79%chance

16920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1137

909

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will the killer of Brian Thompson be found to have at least one accomplice that is also found guilty of a related crime?

Dec 4, 8:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.98%chance

12525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

491

20

If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?

Feb 2, 1:28 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

34.44%chance

6380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1380

725

Will "AIs should also refuse to work on capabilitie..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 28, 1:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.53%chance

2255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1211

969

By 2027, will the presidents of the US and China participate in a conversation in which an LLM also participates?

Jan 16, 7:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16%chance

5148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

81

Will ASI (if it is created and also does not wipe out humanity) care about Morphological freedom?

Jul 28, 11:38 PMJan 1, 12:33 AM

48.88%chance

479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

978

Will the generation after generation alpha also be defined by a technological rather than political/cultural change?

Jan 30, 4:01 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.94%chance

1077

OptionVotes

NO

YES

170

170

Will ASI (if it is created and also does not wipe out humanity) care about wildlife suffering post-creation?

Jul 28, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:58 PM

46.04%chance

453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

112

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