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Will Jake's replacement at Asterisk Magazine (managing editor) also have a name starting with J?

Oct 22, 9:14 PMDec 31, 10:11 PM

20.63%chance

4029903

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19617

5098

Does Lantern Bioworks' product to prevent cavities also eliminate "morning breath"?

Apr 10, 8:58 PMDec 31, 5:01 AM

31.34%chance

382225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1284

777

If Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms, will they also win the Senate?

May 12, 7:47 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

29.23%chance

251317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

Is @galen also @Hannah and/or @Sperbs?

Mar 30, 5:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.79%chance

16920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1137

909

Conditional on Trump being elected president in 2024, will a Republican also be elected in 2028?

Jan 10, 9:01 PMNov 16, 5:59 AM

40.51%chance

16816

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

713

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will the killer of Brian Thompson be found to have at least one accomplice that is also found guilty of a related crime?

Dec 4, 8:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.98%chance

12525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

491

20

Conditional on uploading tech, will cryopreserved brains also be uploaded by 2100?

Jul 27, 5:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

88.16%chance

9472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

263

90

If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?

Feb 2, 1:28 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

34.44%chance

6380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1380

725

Will "AIs should also refuse to work on capabilitie..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 28, 1:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.53%chance

2255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1211

969

Will ASI (if it is created and also does not wipe out humanity) care about Morphological freedom?

Jul 28, 11:38 PMJan 1, 12:33 AM

48.88%chance

479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

978

Will the generation after generation alpha also be defined by a technological rather than political/cultural change?

Jan 30, 4:01 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.94%chance

1077

OptionVotes

NO

YES

170

170

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