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Prediction markets for ALT

Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

Oct 21, 3:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.62%chance

13311375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2266

1908

Will Bitcoin Outperform Altcoins in 2026?

Feb 6, 5:46 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

59.45%chance

209134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12109

8258

Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?

Nov 9, 2:29 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

46.58%chance

263857

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11131

8894

Who is Sam Altman's alt on x.com?

Nov 25, 11:33 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

232795

OptionProbability

Other

He doesn't have an alt

@apples_jimmy

@nearcyan

@BasedBeffJezos

@tszzl

@deepfates

@gwern

50

40

3

3

2

1

1

1

Am I an alt account?

Feb 6, 4:32 AMFeb 13, 7:59 AM

33.5%chance

6445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

79

Effective Altruism stock [permanent]

Mar 16, 6:55 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

70.68%chance

21368

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

977

Is DogeDesigner (@cb_doge on 𝕏) an Elon Musk Alt?

Sep 3, 12:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6%chance

6323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

396

25

Who is grimes' alt? [resolves when 95% confident]

Dec 30, 10:23 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

7310

OptionProbability

Other

Avril Levine

@Eigenrobot

Bjork

Claire L. Evans

amongus

68

30

2

0

0

0

Will humans land on Mars and lift off from its surface to an altitude of at least 10 km by 2041?

Aug 7, 5:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.77%chance

11305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

204

178

AI generates better alt text for 90% of test images by June 30, 2026?

Mar 30, 9:39 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

65.41%chance

881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

73

Will the first account to surpass me on the Creator leaderboard be found to be a friend or alt of BTE within 12 months?

Feb 27, 6:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.95%chance

461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Will I lose over 90% of my money (on my @markingraham account) due to claims of alt embezzlement?

Apr 14, 12:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

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