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Top stories

Far-Right AfD Tops German Poll with 26% Support, Surpassing Merkel’s 29%, Amid Ban Talks and European Right-Wing Surge

Far-Right AfD Tops German Poll with 26% Support, Surpassing Merkel’s 29%, Amid Ban Talks and European Right-Wing Surge

Authors

13

10 months ago

Merz Ties Ukraine Summit to Ceasefire as German Troop Plan Faces Backlash

Merz Ties Ukraine Summit to Ceasefire as German Troop Plan Faces Backlash

Authors

11

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Alternative for Germany

Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?

Aug 18, 12:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

72.26%chance

8819556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1612

651

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.5%chance

2010838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15423

3517

Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?

Jun 9, 8:22 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

20.28%chance

334175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1983

504

Will German far-right party AfD be banned by the German government?

Sep 3, 8:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7.46%chance

292872

OptionVotes

NO

YES

963

949

Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?

Mar 6, 11:53 AMMar 25, 9:59 PM

60.58%chance

342453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

250

239

German "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition)

Oct 27, 10:27 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

6.53%chance

171817

OptionVotes

YES

NO

378

26

Will AfD get 21+% in 2029 German Federal Elections?

Feb 27, 10:06 AMOct 31, 10:59 PM

80.87%chance

261734

OptionVotes

NO

YES

206

49

[Metaculus] Will the Christian Democratic Union of Germany announce that it is open to negot... for Germany before 2030?

Mar 3, 3:42 AMJan 1, 11:00 PM

29.81%chance

161171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

276

237

India touches 5 trillion dollar GDP in 2027?

Jul 1, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.24%chance

694

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will Croatia forcefully draft its citizens before 2060

Mar 11, 8:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.31%chance

355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

86

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