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Top stories

Far-Right AfD Tops German Poll with 26% Support, Surpassing Merkel’s 29%, Amid Ban Talks and European Right-Wing Surge

Far-Right AfD Tops German Poll with 26% Support, Surpassing Merkel’s 29%, Amid Ban Talks and European Right-Wing Surge

Authors

13

6 months ago

Merz Ties Ukraine Summit to Ceasefire as German Troop Plan Faces Backlash

Merz Ties Ukraine Summit to Ceasefire as German Troop Plan Faces Backlash

Authors

11

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Alternative for Germany

Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?

Aug 18, 12:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

70.94%chance

8519270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1559

672

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.68%chance

195588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10173

3993

Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?

Jun 9, 8:22 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

20%chance

313855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

Will German far-right party AfD be banned by the German government?

Sep 3, 8:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

11.29%chance

252333

OptionVotes

NO

YES

996

622

Will AfD get 21+% in 2029 German Federal Elections?

Feb 27, 10:06 AMOct 31, 10:59 PM

82.23%chance

241708

OptionVotes

NO

YES

215

46

Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?

Mar 6, 11:53 AMMar 25, 9:59 PM

53%chance

201495

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

94

German "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition)

Oct 27, 10:27 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

12.34%chance

131360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

266

38

[Metaculus] Will the Christian Democratic Union of Germany announce that it is open to negot... for Germany before 2030?

Mar 3, 3:42 AMJan 1, 11:00 PM

29.81%chance

161171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

276

237

India touches 5 trillion dollar GDP in 2027?

Jul 1, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.61%chance

348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

74

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