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Top stories

Far-Right AfD Tops German Poll with 26% Support, Surpassing Merkel’s 29%, Amid Ban Talks and European Right-Wing Surge

Far-Right AfD Tops German Poll with 26% Support, Surpassing Merkel’s 29%, Amid Ban Talks and European Right-Wing Surge

Authors

13

7 months ago

Merz Ties Ukraine Summit to Ceasefire as German Troop Plan Faces Backlash

Merz Ties Ukraine Summit to Ceasefire as German Troop Plan Faces Backlash

Authors

11

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Alternative for Germany

Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?

Aug 18, 12:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

66.35%chance

8719420

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1398

746

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.68%chance

195588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10173

3993

Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?

Jun 9, 8:22 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

22%chance

313886

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1883

531

Will German far-right party AfD be banned by the German government?

Sep 3, 8:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

11.29%chance

252333

OptionVotes

NO

YES

996

622

German "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition)

Oct 27, 10:27 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

6.2%chance

171806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

389

26

Will AfD get 21+% in 2029 German Federal Elections?

Feb 27, 10:06 AMOct 31, 10:59 PM

82.23%chance

241708

OptionVotes

NO

YES

215

46

Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?

Mar 6, 11:53 AMMar 25, 9:59 PM

51%chance

261670

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

[Metaculus] Will the Christian Democratic Union of Germany announce that it is open to negot... for Germany before 2030?

Mar 3, 3:42 AMJan 1, 11:00 PM

29.81%chance

161171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

276

237

India touches 5 trillion dollar GDP in 2027?

Jul 1, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31%chance

584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Will Croatia forcefully draft its citizens before 2060

Mar 11, 8:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.31%chance

355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

86

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