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Prediction markets for Altruist

Will there be 10 new effective altruist billionaires in the next 5 years?

Jul 1, 12:42 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM

19.75%chance

24148656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2318

1569

Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035

Nov 30, 10:02 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

20.78%chance

559461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3422

3106

Will Destiny be an effective altruist by the end of 2025?

Jan 29, 9:48 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

4.85%chance

275130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4003

613

If I'm alive by 2026, will I believe it is due to personal enjoyment of living or altruistic purposes

Jun 20, 5:45 PMJan 1, 5:01 AM

31.12%chance

234630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1624

423

Will Mr. Beast self-identify as an effective altruist by end of 2030?

Nov 28, 6:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.22%chance

653003

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2045

885

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

Luddite : Industrialization :: ______ : AI (free response)

Nov 25, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

371576

OptionProbability

AI Doomers

Neo-Luddite

Just "Anti-AI people", no special name

Yuddite

Other

Safetyist

Effective Altruist

Butlerian Jihadist

Loomer

Luddite

Rationalist

SkeptAIc

30

23

13

10

10

4

3

2

2

1

1

1

Will there be an effective altruist on the moon before 2035

Mar 31, 12:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.39%chance

321398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1303

897

Will a U.S. House Representative, Senator, or President/Vice President self identify as an effective altruist by the end of 2030?

Oct 29, 5:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.47%chance

431227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1234

836

Will Netflix's upcoming FTX show "The Altruists" make any reference to Worth The Candle?

Aug 26, 12:08 PMDec 11, 11:59 PM

26.5%chance

7994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

167

60

Working in food technology is a more effectively altruistic career choice than working in grassroots activism

Mar 24, 3:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

78.4%chance

15311

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1165

936

Do you consider yourself to be an Effective Altruist?

Dec 29, 7:30 PM

2080

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