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Prediction markets for Am Law 200

Do scaling laws happen because models experience a ton of tiny phase changes which average out to a smooth curve?

Apr 18, 5:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

61.07%chance

301229

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1172

860

Will any BigLaw firm be "completely wrecked" by AI in the next year?

Mar 3, 11:25 PMMar 3, 11:18 PM

27.41%chance

15785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

314

132

Will Die Linke successfully seize at least 200,000 housing units in Berlin before EOY 2031?

Sep 21, 6:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.25%chance

5630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1630

769

Will Israel annex at least 15% of Syria by 2029?

Jan 20, 7:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.98%chance

9331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

396

25

Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks before 2027?

Jun 7, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.1%chance

15317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

90

Will there be a military draft in the United States during Trump's second term, authorized by Congress?

Mar 13, 11:09 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

6.33%chance

5211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

788

Will Pittsburgh's paid parental leave ordinance face legal challenge by end of 2027?

Oct 23, 3:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

In which tax year will the US Child Tax Credit next give its full amount to families with no earnings?

Sep 30, 12:08 AMApr 16, 3:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

Not by tax year 2035

2029–2030

2031–2035

2026

2027

2028

68

14

14

1

1

1

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