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Prediction markets for AMA

Will Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027?

Feb 17, 4:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.06%chance

251152446

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1783

561

Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by an amateur?

Jan 12, 10:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

51.12%chance

347995

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1299

249

US Software Engineer Union at Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, or Apple by end of 2026?

Sep 23, 6:16 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

13.99%chance

261974

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1866

774

Will Amazon be ruled to have illegally maintained a monopoly in the US before the end of 2029?

Oct 24, 10:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43%chance

191205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1396

419

I can buy a dog poop picking up robot on Amazon before 2028

Aug 3, 5:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.33%chance

23994

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1464

822

Will Amazon become the most valuable company at any point during the 2020s? 🏦📈💰🤑🤖

May 27, 5:20 PMJan 4, 12:59 PM

26.84%chance

15939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1651

606

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM

70.93%chance

3582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1562

640

Will Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft get into pharma in the next 5 years?

Jun 13, 7:39 AMJun 13, 8:59 PM

66.67%chance

14463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1089

935

Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027

Dec 16, 5:23 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

38.86%chance

18462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1113

1016

Will any Amazon Web Services data center be nationalized by any country by 2030?

Mar 5, 11:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.46%chance

17245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

995

Masterton, Carterton, and South Wairarapa District Councils amalgamate before 2030?

Oct 20, 3:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.08%chance

3230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

885

AMA: Austin Chen (Cofounder at Manifold & Manifund)

Jul 24, 12:40 AMJul 24, 6:59 AM

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