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Prediction markets for AMA

On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?

Jan 22, 3:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.84%chance

5756104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

54214

4018

Will Amazon release a version of Alexa with GPT4-level intelligence by the end of 2025?

Jul 30, 5:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.78%chance

10116122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1351

521

Will Amazon announce plans to spin off one or more businesses?

Sep 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

13.39%chance

515695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3414

512

US Software Engineer Union at Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, or Apple by end of 2026?

Sep 23, 6:16 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

23.81%chance

201275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1167

930

Will Amazon become the most valuable company at any point during the 2020s? 🏦📈💰🤑🤖

May 27, 5:20 PMJan 4, 12:59 PM

29.37%chance

14839

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1551

645

I can buy a dog poop picking up robot on Amazon before 2028

Aug 3, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.27%chance

20564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

960

Will Amazon be ruled to have illegally maintained a monopoly in the US before the end of 2029?

Oct 24, 10:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.54%chance

17538

OptionVotes

NO

YES

991

991

Will Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft get into pharma in the next 5 years?

Jun 13, 7:39 AMJun 13, 8:59 PM

63.2%chance

13363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

989

989

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM

59.5%chance

2232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

825

Masterton, Carterton, and South Wairarapa District Councils amalgamate before 2030?

Oct 20, 3:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

1100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

What rank in views will The Amazing Digital Circus Finale get?

Dec 1, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

1st-3rd

4th-6th

7th-9th

33

33

33

AMA: Austin Chen (Cofounder at Manifold & Manifund)

Jul 24, 12:40 AMJul 24, 6:59 AM

00

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