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Prediction markets for AMA

Will Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027?

Feb 17, 4:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75%chance

238146015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1732

577

AWS stops offering Anthropic models to US customers via Amazon Bedrock before May 1, 2026

Feb 28, 3:56 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

3.31%chance

2548862

OptionVotes

YES

NO

54089

1849

Will Amazon divest from Anthropic in 2026?

Mar 1, 4:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.2%chance

243010

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3589

279

US Software Engineer Union at Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, or Apple by end of 2026?

Sep 23, 6:16 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

22.57%chance

221335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

912

I can buy a dog poop picking up robot on Amazon before 2028

Aug 3, 5:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

69.86%chance

21584

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1087

952

Will Amazon be ruled to have illegally maintained a monopoly in the US before the end of 2029?

Oct 24, 10:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.54%chance

17538

OptionVotes

NO

YES

991

991

Valterra Amandelbult PGM 5E+Au Production 2027

Jan 30, 7:51 PMMar 1, 12:00 AM

55.15%chance

3263

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1109

902

Will The Amazing Digital Circus Episode 8 reach 50 million views by the end of April?

Mar 6, 8:23 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

43%chance

2251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

869

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM

59.5%chance

2232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

825

Masterton, Carterton, and South Wairarapa District Councils amalgamate before 2030?

Oct 20, 3:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

2200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

909

Will Amazon Emissions end at

Mar 8, 9:00 PMDec 31, 8:56 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 16

16 - 17

17 - 18

18 - 19

19 - 20

Above 20

17

17

17

17

17

17

AMA: Austin Chen (Cofounder at Manifold & Manifund)

Jul 24, 12:40 AMJul 24, 6:59 AM

00

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