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Prediction markets for Amalgam

Will AI be able to write a passable Manifold weekly newsletter by EOY 2026?

Aug 13, 5:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.08%chance

333360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

201

50

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt?

Apr 2, 1:06 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

23.65%chance

21688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

872

First year a specific AI model/framework is named as Time's Person of the Year

Jul 26, 12:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2174

OptionProbability

Other

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2025

41

10

10

10

10

10

9

By the end of 2027 will there be a new state or a new union territory in the Republic of India?

Aug 8, 8:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.49%chance

7153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

135

Which flag design will Massachusetts pick?

Aug 30, 7:20 PMAug 30, 7:12 PM

10127

OptionProbability

White five petal flower design

Blue hills design

Crimson turkey feathers design

Other

65

18

12

6

Which motto will Massachusetts pick?

Aug 30, 7:24 PMAug 30, 7:22 PM

5103

OptionProbability

Other

We Rejoice in the public good

Many Voices, One Commonwealth

We honor all life guided by the First Light

40

31

25

4

Masterton, Carterton, and South Wairarapa District Councils amalgamate before 2030?

Oct 20, 3:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

1100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Which seal design will Massachusetts pick?

Aug 30, 7:22 PMAug 30, 7:20 PM

455

OptionProbability

Whale and bird design

Hill and stars design

Chickadee and feathers design

Other

36

31

18

15

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