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Prediction markets for Amalgam

Will AI be able to write a passable Manifold weekly newsletter by EOY 2026?

Aug 13, 5:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.1%chance

353391

OptionVotes

NO

YES

169

59

First year a specific AI model/framework is named as Time's Person of the Year

Jul 26, 12:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51888

OptionProbability

Other

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2025

61

8

8

8

8

7

1

Who will be revealed as The Roaring Knight in DELTARUNE?

Jul 21, 6:51 PMJan 1, 7:49 PM

171364

OptionProbability

December "Dess" Holiday

Amalgamate of Kris and Noelle

Other

Carol Holiday

Rudy Holiday

Asriel Dreemur

Father Alvin

Papyrus

66

10

8

6

4

3

1

1

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt?

Apr 2, 1:06 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

26%chance

23758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1153

907

Will any municipality in Ontario get amalgamated before Doug Ford leaves office?

Mar 16, 9:30 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

15.28%chance

4368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

628

560

Masterton, Carterton, and South Wairarapa District Councils amalgamate before 2030?

Oct 20, 3:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.08%chance

3230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

885

By the end of 2027 will there be a new state or a new union territory in the Republic of India?

Aug 8, 8:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.49%chance

7153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

135

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