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Prediction markets for Amazon AWS

xAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Sep 28, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.62%chance

3020953

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5349

187

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

97.16%chance

2711352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6226

197

When will TPUs be on InferenceMAX?

Nov 26, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23584

OptionProbability

Mar-Apr 2026

May-Jun 2026

Jul-Aug 2026

Sep-Oct 2026

Nov-Dec 2026

Dec 2025

Jan-Feb 2026

27

21

21

16

13

1

1

Amazon lets me rent a server located in earth orbit by mid 2029

May 12, 7:03 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

9.95%chance

351230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1793

847

If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?

Apr 8, 7:16 PMDec 31, 8:12 PM

9496

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google (DeepMind)

xAI

Government / military lab

Open-source community

Another private company

Meta

NVIDIA

Amazon (AWS)

A decentralized/open-source collaborative effort

A project developed by a terrorist or rogue actor using open-source tools

Microsoft

55

48

35

28

28

28

28

20

20

20

20

20

15

Will any Amazon Web Services data center be nationalized by any country by 2030?

Mar 5, 11:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.46%chance

17245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

995

Favorite cloud-computing platform?

Oct 12, 5:37 PMOct 13, 5:36 PM

231

OptionProbability

Amazon AWS

Microsoft Azure

Google Cloud

Other

39

20

20

20

A use case where a typical enterprise would need to have data in the cloud to fully enjoy the benefits of AI

Nov 29, 4:25 AM

00

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