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Prediction markets for Amazon AWS

AWS stops offering Anthropic models to US customers via Amazon Bedrock before May 1, 2026

Feb 28, 3:56 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

3.31%chance

2548862

OptionVotes

YES

NO

54089

1849

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

97.16%chance

2711352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6226

197

When will TPUs be on InferenceMAX?

Nov 26, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23584

OptionProbability

Mar-Apr 2026

May-Jun 2026

Jul-Aug 2026

Sep-Oct 2026

Nov-Dec 2026

Dec 2025

Jan-Feb 2026

27

21

21

16

13

1

1

xAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Sep 28, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.14%chance

112824

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

983

Amazon lets me rent a server located in earth orbit by mid 2029

May 12, 7:03 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

9.95%chance

351230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1793

847

Will any Amazon Web Services data center be nationalized by any country by 2030?

Mar 5, 11:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.46%chance

17245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

995

Favorite cloud-computing platform?

Oct 12, 5:37 PMOct 13, 5:36 PM

220

OptionProbability

Amazon AWS

Microsoft Azure

Google Cloud

Other

41

21

21

16

A use case where a typical enterprise would need to have data in the cloud to fully enjoy the benefits of AI

Nov 29, 4:25 AM

00

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