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Prediction markets for Amazon One

Which AI tech companies will be acquired for more than $1B in 2025? 💰

Jan 8, 7:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38143845

OptionProbability

Hugging Face

DataBricks

ElevenLabs (audio)

Suno (music)

Pinecone (database)

Runway AI

Grammarly

Nous Research (open source, decentralized AI)

Perplexity

Devin (Cognition)

Magic (coding)

Figure AI

Groq

Midjourney

Stability AI

OpenAI

Anthropic

xAI

SSI (Ilya Sutskever)

Cohere

Mistral AI

6

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

2

2

2

2

2

1

5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

Dec 27, 8:16 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

70.31%chance

11853527

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1539

650

Could I buy a legit 8TB (8To) microSD card on amazon before 2026 ?

Dec 13, 2:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3.75%chance

485724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5308

294

Will Amazon announce plans to spin off one or more businesses?

Sep 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

13.39%chance

515695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3414

512

A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.

Oct 1, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

18.94%chance

505679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

852

1. Meta will begin charging for use of its Llama models.

Dec 27, 8:10 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

8.43%chance

394420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3296

303

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.24%chance

223012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1725

736

Purchased Kindle eBooks censored or blocked before 2030.

Jun 18, 7:52 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

67.44%chance

231465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

695

Will piracy make a comeback by Dec 2025?

Feb 12, 4:19 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

29.01%chance

281263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

915

xAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Sep 28, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.2%chance

71174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1928

519

I can buy a dog poop picking up robot on Amazon before 2028

Aug 3, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.27%chance

20564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

960

[Wheel of Time] Which of the Forsaken will appear in the TV series?

Sep 20, 12:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5265

OptionProbability

Moghedien

Sammael

Graendal

Aginor

Asmodean

Balthamel

Be'lal

Demandred

Mesaana

Rahvin

Semirhage

63

17

10

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

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