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Prediction markets for Amazon One

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

97.94%chance

2915988

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7381

168

A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.

Oct 1, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

18.94%chance

505679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

852

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

Purchased Kindle eBooks censored or blocked before 2030.

Jun 18, 7:52 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

67.44%chance

231465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

695

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.71%chance

161055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1374

730

Will an AI-generated song about Bitcoin reach 1M streams before 2027?

Mar 15, 7:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.81%chance

151042

OptionVotes

YES

NO

503

20

When will the Winds of Winter be released?

Feb 22, 6:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18833

OptionProbability

Before 2035

Before 2034

Before 2033

Before 2032

Before 2036

Before 2031

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

65

63

61

58

45

36

34

32

31

4

[Wheel of Time] In the show, will Znmevz Gnvz or n Sbefnxra va qvfthvfr?

Sep 20, 12:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.01%chance

5735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

657

9

I can buy a dog poop picking up robot on Amazon before 2028

Aug 3, 5:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

69.19%chance

22594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

962

Will Anthropic publicly release Claude Opus 4.9 by August 31, 2026?

Jun 21, 3:22 AMSep 1, 12:00 AM

40%chance

15176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

91

[Wheel of Time] Will any Darkfriend character from the books be a non-Darkfriend in the show?

Sep 2, 6:23 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73%chance

3116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

50

Will Amazon buy Saks?

Jan 15, 4:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

454

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

60

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