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Prediction markets for Amazon One

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.5%chance

246554

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3092

324

A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.

Oct 1, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

18.94%chance

505679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

852

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.77%chance

233562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2275

637

When will the Winds of Winter be released?

Feb 22, 6:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

251562

OptionProbability

Before 2032

Before 2033

Before 2034

Before 2030

Before 2031

Before 2035

Before 2036

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

68

68

68

67

67

64

62

59

25

1

Purchased Kindle eBooks censored or blocked before 2030.

Jun 18, 7:52 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

67.38%chance

241466

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1437

696

I can buy a dog poop picking up robot on Amazon before 2028

Aug 3, 5:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.33%chance

23994

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1464

822

Continuing to travel: Where will I end up in one year?

Aug 1, 8:17 PMAug 1, 8:10 PM

7532

OptionProbability

Other

SF

Parents' house (southeast)

South Dakota (domicile)

North Carolina (Raleigh-Durham area)

Seattle

NYC

23

17

14

14

12

10

10

[Wheel of Time] Will any non-Darkfriend character from the books be a Darkfriend in the show?

Sep 2, 6:26 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

96.54%chance

4463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

562

27

Will "The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power" run at least three seasons?

Nov 15, 4:56 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

94.39%chance

4325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

410

24

Will Salesforce announce a sale to a major AI/tech company within 365 days of the first OpenAI or Anthropic listing?

Oct 4, 12:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2206

OptionProbability

First public listing occurs, but no qualifying acquisition announced in the window

Qualifying Salesforce acquisition announced

Neither OpenAI nor Anthropic publicly listed by December 31, 2028

92

4

4

Buffet Indicator on Nov 2026?

Nov 15, 6:12 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

485

OptionProbability

201%-250%

101%-150%

151%-200%

51%-100%

251%+

0%-50%

23

19

19

16

15

8

Will Amazon buy Saks?

Jan 15, 4:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.41%chance

555

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

57

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