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Prediction markets for Amazon One

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

97.16%chance

2711352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6226

197

A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.

Oct 1, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

18.94%chance

505679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

852

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

xAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Sep 28, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.14%chance

112824

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

983

Purchased Kindle eBooks censored or blocked before 2030.

Jun 18, 7:52 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

67.44%chance

231465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

695

Will "Project Hail Mary" (2026) gross >$63.62M on its domestic opening weekend (more than "Scream 7" did) ?

Mar 17, 6:01 PMApr 19, 11:59 PM

99%chance

131073

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

10

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.09%chance

151045

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1393

720

I can buy a dog poop picking up robot on Amazon before 2028

Aug 3, 5:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

69.86%chance

21584

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1087

952

Will I receive the pool I ordered?

Feb 16, 5:31 PMApr 30, 4:25 PM

44.72%chance

17473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

[Wheel of Time] Will any non-Darkfriend character from the books be a Darkfriend in the show?

Sep 2, 6:26 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

96.54%chance

4463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

562

27

When will the Winds of Winter be released?

Feb 22, 6:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4192

OptionProbability

Before 2036

Before 2033

Before 2034

Before 2035

Before 2032

Before 2031

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

54

50

50

50

48

44

41

33

20

9

Buffet Indicator on Nov 2026?

Nov 15, 6:12 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

485

OptionProbability

201%-250%

101%-150%

151%-200%

51%-100%

251%+

0%-50%

23

19

19

16

15

8

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