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Prediction markets for Amazon One

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

98.97%chance

3119748

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10655

120

A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.

Oct 1, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

18.94%chance

505679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

852

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

211899

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1227

818

Purchased Kindle eBooks censored or blocked before 2030.

Jun 18, 7:52 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

67.44%chance

231465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

695

Will an AI-generated song about Bitcoin reach 1M streams before 2027?

Mar 15, 7:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.81%chance

151042

OptionVotes

YES

NO

503

20

I can buy a dog poop picking up robot on Amazon before 2028

Aug 3, 5:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.33%chance

23994

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1464

822

[Wheel of Time] Will any non-Darkfriend character from the books be a Darkfriend in the show?

Sep 2, 6:26 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

96.54%chance

4463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

562

27

Continuing to travel: Where will I end up in one year?

Aug 1, 8:17 PMAug 1, 8:10 PM

7432

OptionProbability

Other

SF

Parents' house (southeast)

South Dakota (domicile)

Seattle

NYC

North Carolina (Raleigh-Durham area)

22

16

14

14

12

12

11

Will the Western Washington US District Court grant the FTC a permanent injunction against Amazon?

Sep 27, 1:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.2%chance

7162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

214

128

[Wheel of Time] Will any Darkfriend character from the books be a non-Darkfriend in the show?

Sep 2, 6:23 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73%chance

3116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

50

Will "The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power" run at least three seasons?

Nov 15, 4:56 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.52%chance

3110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

210

48

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