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Prediction markets for Amazon One

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.75%chance

226494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3137

320

A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.

Oct 1, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

18.94%chance

505679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

852

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

Purchased Kindle eBooks censored or blocked before 2030.

Jun 18, 7:52 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

67.44%chance

231465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

695

When will the Winds of Winter be released?

Feb 22, 6:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

251177

OptionProbability

Before 2035

Before 2036

Before 2034

Before 2031

Before 2032

Before 2033

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

51

51

42

41

41

41

33

32

16

2

I can buy a dog poop picking up robot on Amazon before 2028

Aug 3, 5:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.33%chance

23994

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1464

822

Continuing to travel: Where will I end up in one year?

Aug 1, 8:17 PMAug 1, 8:10 PM

7532

OptionProbability

Other

SF

Parents' house (southeast)

South Dakota (domicile)

North Carolina (Raleigh-Durham area)

Seattle

NYC

23

17

14

14

12

10

10

[Wheel of Time] Will any non-Darkfriend character from the books be a Darkfriend in the show?

Sep 2, 6:26 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

96.54%chance

4463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

562

27

Will all 5 Anti-Social Press cryptogram books be published on Amazon by the end October 31, 2026?

Jun 25, 7:39 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

87.84%chance

7323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

82

Will "The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power" run at least three seasons?

Nov 15, 4:56 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.52%chance

3110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

210

48

Buffet Indicator on Nov 2026?

Nov 15, 6:12 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

485

OptionProbability

201%-250%

101%-150%

151%-200%

51%-100%

251%+

0%-50%

23

19

19

16

15

8

Will Amazon buy Saks?

Jan 15, 4:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

454

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

60

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