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Prediction markets for Amazon One

Which AI tech companies will be acquired for more than $1B in 2025? 💰

Jan 8, 7:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2744804

OptionProbability

Groq

Stability AI

Mistral AI

ElevenLabs (audio)

Runway AI

Figure AI

Cohere

Grammarly

Perplexity

Devin (Cognition)

Pinecone (database)

Magic (coding)

Midjourney

Nous Research (open source, decentralized AI)

Hugging Face

DataBricks

Suno (music)

Anthropic

xAI

SSI (Ilya Sutskever)

OpenAI

32

32

30

27

26

25

25

25

24

24

24

23

18

16

15

13

11

5

5

5

3

Will Amazon announce plans to spin off one or more businesses?

Sep 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

13.39%chance

515695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3414

512

A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.

Oct 1, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

18.94%chance

505679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

852

5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

Dec 27, 8:16 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

13.91%chance

283077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2488

402

1. Meta will begin charging for use of its Llama models.

Dec 27, 8:10 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

26.86%chance

342895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1650

606

Could I buy a legit 8TB (8To) microSD card on amazon before 2026 ?

Dec 13, 2:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.21%chance

452803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2387

516

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.16%chance

202757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1470

801

Purchased Kindle eBooks censored or blocked before 2030.

Jun 18, 7:52 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

67.44%chance

231465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

695

Will piracy make a comeback by Dec 2025?

Feb 12, 4:19 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

40.09%chance

25943

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1082

831

I can buy a dog poop picking up robot on Amazon before 2028

Aug 3, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.27%chance

20564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

960

[Wheel of Time] Will any Darkfriend character from the books be a non-Darkfriend in the show?

Sep 2, 6:23 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73%chance

3116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

50

[Wheel of Time] In the show, will Znmevz Gnvz or n Sbefnxra va qvfthvfr?

Sep 20, 12:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.87%chance

472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

88

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