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Prediction markets for Amazon One

xAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Sep 28, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.62%chance

3020953

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5349

187

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

97.16%chance

2711352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6226

197

A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.

Oct 1, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

18.94%chance

505679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

852

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

Purchased Kindle eBooks censored or blocked before 2030.

Jun 18, 7:52 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

67.44%chance

231465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

695

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.71%chance

161055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1374

730

Will an AI-generated song about Bitcoin reach 1M streams before 2027?

Mar 15, 7:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.81%chance

151042

OptionVotes

YES

NO

503

20

I can buy a dog poop picking up robot on Amazon before 2028

Aug 3, 5:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

69.19%chance

22594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

962

[Wheel of Time] In the show, will Znmevz Gnvz or n Sbefnxra va qvfthvfr?

Sep 20, 12:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.38%chance

5588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

612

10

Will "The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power" run at least three seasons?

Nov 15, 4:56 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.52%chance

3110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

210

48

Buffet Indicator on Nov 2026?

Nov 15, 6:12 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

485

OptionProbability

201%-250%

101%-150%

151%-200%

51%-100%

251%+

0%-50%

23

19

19

16

15

8

Will Amazon buy Saks?

Jan 15, 4:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

454

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

60

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