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Top stories

ICE Sweep in Texas Nets 350 Gang Members, Scores of Repeat Offenders

ICE Sweep in Texas Nets 350 Gang Members, Scores of Repeat Offenders

Authors

10

10 months ago

Prediction markets for American

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

87.01%chance

523205143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10406

6058

In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?

Feb 20, 10:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

92%chance

477101759

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8074

991

Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by June 30?

Jun 16, 8:04 AMJun 30, 6:59 AM

18.49%chance

14931694

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6349

1015

What % of Americans will cite computers/technology as the US's top problem by Dec 31, 2026? (Gallup)

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3220657

OptionProbability

0.5-1%

1-1.5%

<0.5%

1.5-2%

2-3%

5-10%

3-4%

≥10%

4-5%

44

17

12

8

6

4

3

3

2

Will Donald Trump send out a stimulus check to the majority of american citizens during his second term?

Nov 22, 5:36 AMJan 30, 4:59 AM

34.35%chance

15616893

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1732

1260

If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?

Jan 21, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8516515

OptionProbability

Palantir

OpenAI

Other

xAI

Anthropic

Anduril

Google

Facebook

DeepSeek

Alibaba

Mistral

17

15

15

13

11

10

7

6

5

1

1

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

44.21%chance

463034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

951

Will there be a Wikipedia article about a "Euro-American split" by the end of 2028

Mar 6, 12:15 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.31%chance

101108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3585

2721

Will 60% of Americans approve abortion "for any reason" before 2030?

Nov 12, 7:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.68%chance

181002

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1489

351

In 2028, will at least 35m (1/10) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?

Mar 17, 6:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.56%chance

20976

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1307

865

Will an American Astronaut and a Chinese Taikonaut shake hands on the surface of the moon before 2035?

Apr 29, 12:24 AMDec 31, 4:05 PM

15.65%chance

8466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

119

Will it ever be true that >50% of Americans own cryptocurrency?**

Oct 7, 1:18 AMJan 2, 12:50 AM

9237

OptionProbability

2055 or later (or never)

Yes, before 2055

Yes, before 2045

Yes, before 2035

82

9

8

1

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