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Prediction markets for Ames

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

86%chance

498197659

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5223

1087

In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?

Feb 20, 10:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

93.41%chance

46499576

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9124

908

What % of Americans will identify computers/technology advancement as the US's most important problem before 2026?

Dec 5, 2:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

187861

OptionProbability

0.21-0.5%

0.51-1%

1.01-2%

2.01-5%

0-0.2%

5.01-10%

>10%

24

21

17

12

10

9

6

Will Donald Trump send out a stimulus check to all american citizens during his second term?

Nov 22, 5:36 AMJan 30, 4:59 AM

38.47%chance

987540

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

747

Will there be a violent revolution or Civil war in America by 2100?

May 18, 10:12 PMApr 21, 5:59 AM

56%chance

363606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

960

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

50.5%chance

442809

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

868

North American 2025 Rhodium estimate to exceed 19 koz

Aug 13, 12:19 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

39.8%chance

42324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12298

8132

Will Mr Beast ever be elected President of the United States of America?

Aug 30, 10:54 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5%chance

202095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1184

959

Will there be an EU convention to amend the treaties during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 18, 2:57 PMJun 9, 9:59 PM

44.92%chance

71533

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1584

1422

Will there be a Wikipedia article about a "Euro-American split" by the end of 2028

Mar 6, 12:15 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.28%chance

101033

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3510

2773

Will 60% of Americans approve abortion "for any reason" before 2030?

Nov 12, 7:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.68%chance

181002

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1489

351

Will an American Astronaut and a Chinese Taikonaut shake hands on the surface of the moon before 2035?

Apr 29, 12:24 AMDec 31, 4:05 PM

15.65%chance

8466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

119

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