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Prediction markets for AMP

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40%chance

2217614

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

815

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64%chance

3014612

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13272

8386

Will Tetra break up with ampdot in 2025?

Jun 28, 12:01 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4.01%chance

58077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4896

204

Universal free fall violation (amplified 100x)

Jan 5, 4:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

261522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

701

🕹️What devices will DOOM run on before the end of 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 14, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

181349

OptionProbability

Rabbit R1

microwave

Photocopier

vape

Pregnancy test (real this time, not faked)

Guitar Amp with small digital screen

Elgato Stream Deck (running, not just display)

Vtech kidibuzz phone

Stem player

Soldier crabs

Disposable vape

OP-1 (teenage engineering)

quantum computer (not an emulator)

100

89

81

70

69

61

59

52

52

50

43

35

20

Will the Hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius) become extinct in the current century?

Feb 29, 7:22 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.87%chance

15666

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

292

Will "Overview of strong human intelligence amplifi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Oct 8, 6:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

45%chance

1254

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1254

249

Which country will be the first to legalize and regulate recreational amphetamines?

Mar 18, 6:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

861

OptionProbability

Other

Brazil

Bolivia

Canada

Netherlands

Portugal

USA

China (mainland)

India

36

20

10

9

6

6

4

4

4

Non-celebrity Vintage Boss Katana amplifier sells for more than price of 20 metric tons of iron ore or scrap by 2050

Dec 21, 12:12 AMDec 28, 2:59 PM

51.5%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

102

Will a large language model (or AI) successfully convince someone to take amphetamine (off-label, not for ADHD) by 2035?

Apr 8, 11:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.75%chance

230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

82

Iterated Amplification Stock (Permanent)

Feb 9, 8:36 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

212

OptionProbability

NO

YES

70

70

Will Jeffrey Wang of metaphor.systems ever meet Jeffrey Wang of Amplitude by EOY 2027? (both went to Harvard)

Dec 23, 12:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

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