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Prediction markets for AMP

Will Manifold leak KYC information by the end of 2026?

Sep 20, 9:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.85%chance

2320535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18118

4837

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.1%chance

2218272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

910

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.11%chance

3414703

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13307

8366

🕹️What devices will DOOM run on before the end of 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 14, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

181809

OptionProbability

Rabbit R1

Disposable vape

vape

microwave

Photocopier

Pregnancy test (real this time, not faked)

Guitar Amp with small digital screen

Elgato Stream Deck (running, not just display)

Vtech kidibuzz phone

OP-1 (teenage engineering)

Soldier crabs

Stem player

quantum computer (not an emulator)

100

100

100

100

81

69

61

59

45

31

31

16

14

Universal free fall violation (amplified 100x)

Jan 5, 4:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

261584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

701

Will the Hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius) become extinct in the current century?

Feb 29, 7:22 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.41%chance

16716

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1095

279

Which country will be the first to legalize and regulate recreational amphetamines?

Mar 18, 6:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

871

OptionProbability

Other

Brazil

Bolivia

Canada

Netherlands

Portugal

USA

China (mainland)

India

36

20

10

9

6

6

4

4

4

Non-celebrity Vintage Boss Katana amplifier sells for more than price of 20 metric tons of iron ore or scrap by 2050

Dec 21, 12:12 AMDec 28, 2:59 PM

51.5%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

102

Will a large language model (or AI) successfully convince someone to take amphetamine (off-label, not for ADHD) by 2035?

Apr 8, 11:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.75%chance

230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

82

Iterated Amplification Stock (Permanent)

Feb 9, 8:36 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

212

OptionProbability

NO

YES

70

70

Will Jeffrey Wang of metaphor.systems ever meet Jeffrey Wang of Amplitude by EOY 2027? (both went to Harvard)

Dec 23, 12:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

Did you know how to make amplified markets before reading this?

Jan 16, 3:12 PM

190

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