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Prediction markets for AMPL

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.1%chance

2218272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

910

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.03%chance

3314678

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13282

8380

Will LFP batteries account for more than 65% of global electric vehicle battery production (by GWh) in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

35.19%chance

64592

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13570

7369

Universal free fall violation (amplified 100x)

Jan 5, 4:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

261584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

701

Will Superalignment succeed, according to a majority of Eliezer, Nate, Paul, John, David.

Oct 28, 5:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.57%chance

71249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

399

44

Which of the following statements about the Setagaya Killer are true?

Jun 24, 7:10 AMDec 30, 4:25 PM

2185

OptionProbability

The killer knew the family prior to the murder

The killer had a direct military connection

The killer was a minor at the time of the murder

As of June 24th, 2025, the killer is currently dead

The killer had a direct connection to local, national, or international politics

59

50

50

50

50

When will I get a cat? (Within the next 3 calendar years)

Oct 27, 4:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

490

OptionProbability

You Don't Get A Cat.

2024

2025

2026

2023

50

15

15

15

5

Setagaya Family Murder Solved by EOY2030?

Jun 22, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.66%chance

460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

92

Non-celebrity Vintage Boss Katana amplifier sells for more than price of 20 metric tons of iron ore or scrap by 2050

Dec 21, 12:12 AMDec 28, 2:59 PM

51.5%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

102

Iterated Amplification Stock (Permanent)

Feb 9, 8:36 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

212

OptionProbability

NO

YES

70

70

Will Jeffrey Wang of metaphor.systems ever meet Jeffrey Wang of Amplitude by EOY 2027? (both went to Harvard)

Dec 23, 12:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

Did you know how to make amplified markets before reading this?

Jan 16, 3:12 PM

190

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