Amplify News

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40%chance

2217614

OptionVotes

YES

1099

815

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64%chance

3014612

OptionVotes

YES

13272

8386

Before 2026, will Manifold innovate its way to a market correctly pricing a 1-in-100,000 random chance of Yes as 0.001%?

Jan 7, 10:21 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

1.76%chance

326566

OptionVotes

YES

3416

877

What conspiracy theories not included in the linked market will be proven true by 2100?

Feb 3, 12:43 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

335528

OptionProbability

The Democrat party has directly asked mainstream media to promote or repress a news story, and they followed (Only counting incidents in or after 2015)

TikTok is controlled by the Chinese government

Someone working for a US intelligence agency was a regular user of Manifold before this option was made

The culture war has been intentionally amplified by the wealthy to distract from class conflict

The Republican party has been making the illegal immigrant problem worse during 2020-2024 to blame it on Joe Biden during election season

The US has spies working in the North Korean government

"The Agency" on Manifold was known to the whole Manifold staff team before it started

The idea of aliens is used by the US to distract people from secret military projects

The Premier League delayed punishing Manchester City for breaking FFP regulations to protect its own self-interests

The Chinese government planned their Wuhan lockdowns to protect their own country from Covid-19 but spread it to other countries

John Barnett (Boeing whistleblower) was assassinated

Mattress Firm is a money laundering front

The earth and/or universe was created by a God, deity, supernatural being, or some other sentient/conscious entity in the beginning

Creationism (second try): The earth and/or universe was INTENTIONALLY created and designed by an INDIVIDUAL god or deity at the VERY BEGINNING of its existence

The US created Covid-19 in a lab in China

Putin was threatened by a member of his cabinet to invade Ukraine

The CIA systematically edits Wikipedia articles to present the US in a better light

The 2024 Donald Trump assassination attempt was a hoax or setup

COVID-19 vaccines permanently change one's DNA or genome

Creationism (third try): Genesis 1 prima facie is an accurate description of the earth and/or universe's origins

In the Tucker & Carlson interview, the dubbed voice of Putin in english is not actually saying what Putin is saying, but instead something completely different

Vladimir Putin died in 2014 and was secretly replaced by a body double

COVID-19 vaccine is fatal or lethal in the long term

Phantom Time Hypothesis: A substantial portion of the Middle Ages was made up and never happened

There is a firmament, dome, or ceiling above the earth

Viruses/viral particles don't actually exist

Joe Biden to drop out of the 2024 election so that former first lady Michelle Obama could take his place as the Democratic Party's nominee.

A group of giant people known as the Nephilim once inhabited the earth and cut down the colossal trees, leaving stumps that the general public understands as geological formations like Devils Tower in Wyoming and Giant’s Causeway in Ireland

Will I find a violation of universal free fall?

Dec 22, 4:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.58%chance

524112

OptionVotes

YES

3475

1856

Universal free fall violation (amplified 100x)

Jan 5, 4:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

261522

OptionVotes

YES

1010

701

Prediction markets for Amplify

Prediction markets for Amplify

Prediction markets for Amplify

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

Before 2026, will Manifold innovate its way to a market correctly pricing a 1-in-100,000 random chance of Yes as 0.001%?

What conspiracy theories not included in the linked market will be proven true by 2100?

Will I find a violation of universal free fall?

Universal free fall violation (amplified 100x)

Will Manifold Markets introduce leveraged betting by Dec 31, 2025?

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2033?

Will credible evidence emerge by 2035 that the Triads were involved in the deaths of Bruce Lee or Brandon Lee?

Will "Overview of strong human intelligence amplifi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Non-celebrity Vintage Boss Katana amplifier sells for more than price of 20 metric tons of iron ore or scrap by 2050

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