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In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80%chance

10712835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3243

555

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?

Mar 19, 3:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

80.58%chance

255060

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1605

784

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.97%chance

24571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

851

Will an AI ballot measure in any state be endorsed in a Scott Alexander post by the 2026 elections?

Dec 14, 1:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.07%chance

6460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1460

685

📖Will @ScottAlexander write an all-time post (see description) by 2035?

Sep 11, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.63%chance

16365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

961

Will "An Extremely Opinionated Annotated List of My..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 9, 1:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

39.51%chance

3310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1215

303

Will "Optimistic Assumptions, Longterm Planning, an..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 18, 3:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

34.3%chance

3187

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1177

367

Will "Endometriosis is an incredibly interesting di..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 17, 4:54 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

19.81%chance

6118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1060

699

Will "An Opinionated Guide to Using Anki Correctly" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 12, 5:43 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.51%chance

266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

751

Will "Will Jesus Christ return in an election year?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 2:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.79%chance

362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

739

Will "Race and Gender Bias As An Example of Unfaith..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 3, 3:43 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.05%chance

321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

996

Will "Ten arguments that AI is an existential risk" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 15, 4:51 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

10

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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