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In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.14%chance

10914299

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3638

469

Will "The Problem with Defining an "AGI Ban" by Out..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 20, 10:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

20.06%chance

4695

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

689

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

932

Will an AI ballot measure in any state be endorsed in a Scott Alexander post by the 2026 elections?

Dec 14, 1:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61.88%chance

7560

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1274

785

📖Will @ScottAlexander write an all-time post (see description) by 2035?

Sep 11, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.72%chance

16465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

933

Will "An analysis of AI-generated content at the Me..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 15, 8:56 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.74%chance

2150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

741

Will "Endometriosis is an incredibly interesting di..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 17, 4:54 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

23.16%chance

7148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1090

589

Will "Takes from two months as an aspiring LLM natu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 29, 3:03 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.7%chance

5119

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

891

Will "Will Jesus Christ return in an election year?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 2:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.65%chance

4112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

789

Will "An Opinionated Guide to Using Anki Correctly" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 12, 5:43 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.51%chance

266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

751

Will "Parkinson's Heuristic: The Only Time To Do An..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 14, 3:20 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Can activation verbalizers surface an interna..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 8, 5:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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