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Prediction markets for ANA

Anastasiya Stock (Permanent)

Nov 7, 12:24 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

45783706

OptionProbability

NO

YES

3216

1957

Anavoir Stock [Permanent]

Nov 11, 7:34 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

28250897

OptionProbability

NO

YES

3962

1414

Next airline to default

Nov 20, 7:54 PMDec 20, 7:47 PM

1620561

OptionProbability

Frontier

No default amongst those listed before 2030

JetBlue

Bermudair

Avelo

United

American

Southwest

Alaska

Air Canada

Ryanair

Qantas

Cathay Pacific

KLM

Turkish Airlines

Qatar Airlines

Virgin Atlantic

Iberia

LATAM

Aeromexico

Allegiant Air

Breeze

Sun Country

Lufthansa

Emirates

Singapore Airlines

ANA

Air New Zealand

25

16

14

5

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about someone's brain signals being collected or analyzed without their consent?

Feb 9, 10:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

40%chance

24919563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2714

1726

Will Gene McCarthy's DNA analysis of humans as bonobo/pig hybrids be confirmed by 2030?

Sep 7, 10:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7.36%chance

4810748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3547

282

Who will be elected mayor of Toronto in 2026?

Jul 14, 4:42 AMOct 27, 10:59 PM

2110380

OptionProbability

Olivia Chow

Brad Bradford

Other

John Tory

Ana Bailão

Anthony Furey

88

9

2

1

1

1

Who will succeed John Swinney as First Minister of Scotland?

May 18, 7:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1210310

OptionProbability

Other

Michael Marra

Stephen Flynn

Jenny Gilruth

Kate Forbes

Neil Gray

Mairi McAllan

Anas Sarwar

Angus Robertson

Douglas Ross

Alex Cole-Hamilton

Ian Blackford

31

26

24

4

3

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029

Dec 23, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.96%chance

41621

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2851

560

Will JPMorgan force their employees to use generative AI for analyses, reports or other work in 2026?

Dec 31, 6:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.57%chance

111235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1208

939

Will mainstream science be using primarily Bayesian analysis by 2035?

Aug 14, 11:50 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

33.67%chance

251042

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

974

Who will be First Minister of Scotland at some point in their life?

May 8, 1:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10741

OptionProbability

Stephen Flynn

Neil Gray

Jackie Baillie

Mairi McAllan

Kate Forbes

Angus Robertson

Anas Sarwar

Douglas Ross

Ash Regan

Lorna Slater

Shona Robison

52

22

18

16

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

If intelligent aliens visit us, will AI-based technologies outperform analog linguistics in translating their language?

Mar 30, 12:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

69.65%chance

13186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1037

977

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