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Prediction markets for Analog

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:41 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

30.76%chance

9531424

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1365

1072

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

11.93%chance

286210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

946

Will there be an analogue of executive order 6102 for crypto, making ownership illegal?

Aug 23, 7:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.11%chance

502040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

947

Will high-school or college students in 2040 be able to tell time on an analog clock?

Nov 28, 9:30 PMMay 13, 10:59 PM

88.52%chance

111960

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

957

Will analog computers be more powerful and more common than digital computers by 2030?

Apr 12, 3:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.94%chance

131020

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1622

894

Will we see analog accelerators in consumer hardware by the end of 2026?

Nov 15, 3:40 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.93%chance

14609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

926

If intelligent aliens visit us, will AI-based technologies outperform analog linguistics in translating their language?

Mar 30, 12:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

69.65%chance

13186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1037

977

In 2040, will any state of the art AIs do something analogous to sleeping?

Jan 26, 8:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.81%chance

9163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

210

209

Will LLM inference for the largest models run on analogue circuitry as the primary element of computuation by end 2028?

Nov 26, 3:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.74%chance

5157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

97

Will a semaglutide analogue be included in a Sims-like game by EOY 2029?

Jan 22, 9:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.48%chance

6115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

87

Will chatGPT (or an analogue) be able to query the entire text of anyone's entire Goodreads collection list by EOY 2027?

Feb 22, 2:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66.22%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

56

Should large AI training runs be subject to limitation treaties between the major powers analogous to SALT

May 7, 5:51 PM

60

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