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Analytics News

    Prediction markets for Analytics

    OptionProbability

    Soccer player

    Chaplain

    Federal employees

    AI Safety Researchers

    Kindergarten Teachers

    Dancer

    AI Resistance Leader

    Judges

    Nurse

    Politicians

    Gynecologist

    The job of judging which propositions are true (analytic philosopher).

    Firefighter

    Novelist

    Surgeon (autonomous)

    Police officer

    Project Manager

    Teachers

    Barbers

    Lawyers

    Dentists

    Therapists

    Chefs

    Game developer

    social media content creators

    Fluffer

    Construction workers

    Computer programmers

    Soldier

    Personal trainers

    Fast Food Cook

    Doctors

    Prompt engineers

    Fast Food Cashier

    Bus drivers

    Robot designers / engineers

    Photographer

    Translator

    90

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    77

    74

    66

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    62

    58

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    47

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    23

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    3

    OptionProbability

    We could map the entirety of analytic philosophy using this question.

    The list of answers to this question form a constitution of truth that can be aligned decentrally by a free market.

    A network state could use a predictive market constitution to define its smart social contracts.

    Large scale AI systems should have intrinsic guardrail behaviors that no one actor can override.

    This prediction is effectively the same as this one and nobody can explain why this mechanism isn't able to align AI at scale. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/krantz-mechanism-demonstration

    Betting on philosophy seems like a fun way to (1) learn philosophy (2) contribute to a transhumanist utopia world where our net incomes are highly correlated with how much beneficial stuff we taught the public domain AI.

    Constitutions play a critical role in the frontier methods for aligning AI.

    A good AI should not kill people.

    There would be a dramatic positive change in the world if teenagers and homeless folks could earn crypto on an app they download for free to argue philosophy with an AI until they can either prove the AI is right or prove it is wrong.

    Philosophy is primarily the pursuit of defining language.

    A duty to reason is the foundation for goodness.

    I have free will.

    A good AI should not infringe on the rights, autonomy or property of humans.

    We should stop doing massive training runs.

    The evolutionary environment contains perverse incentives that have led to substantial false consciousness in humans

    Induction is not justified.

    A good AI, by design, requires large scale human participation to grow.

    A good AI requires large scale humanity verification before it accepts new data as true.

    The principle of uniformity in nature is self evident or justified by self evident facts.

    God exists.

    AI should not create novel content.

    The quality of mercy is not strained...

    Vriska did nothing wrong.

    94

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    93

    93

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    90

    89

    89

    86

    72

    67

    66

    63

    52

    52

    50

    50

    42

    41

    34

    32

    31

    20

    OptionProbability

    RV events

    Police as crime solvers

    Prison as corrective

    Libertarian free will

    Working gives us meaning.

    LessWrong is a source of pure wisdom

    IQ as an objective measure of general intelligence

    Merit/desert

    Neoliberalism

    Proof School

    Having kids

    LSD unlocks a deeper consciousness

    Rule a Country (discord server)

    Religion

    The attitude that many of us tend to take way too many things way too seriously (serious submission)

    Peer reviewed studies - lots of junk routinely passes peer review, replication/post publication peer review are much better indicators of quality of research

    Quantum computing

    Alcohol is needed for life to be fun

    The meaning of life

    Death

    Cryptocurrency

    Pessimism about the future of the world

    Founders/Entrepreneurs

    meta-irony

    On Manifold, mana inflation

    Humans being innately (as opposed to instrumentally) more important than other animals

    Free will in general

    An apple a day

    Clinical Psychology

    Nihilism

    meta-submissions

    Children as planetary burden

    focus on X-risks within EA as opposed to current issues

    Nuclear fusion as the energy of the future

    Anti-capitalism

    Ockham’s razor

    Free Trade

    Deontological ethics

    Analytic philosophy

    Continental philosophy

    Utilitarianism

    Modernity

    Capitalism

    Freedom

    The analytic-synthetic distinction

    Veganism

    Technological progress as a good thing

    Moral relativism

    Classical literature

    Therapy

    Being in shape

    Rationality

    Effective Altruism

    Artificial Intelligence

    Longevity/immortality

    AI Doomerism

    Politics

    Free Speech

    The opinion that neoliberalism is overrated

    The anti- AI art movement

    Extended Travelling (as opposed to <4 week vacation)

    Donald Trump being the worst thing for the US and the world

    Enlightenment

    Taking things seriously

    Unconditional love

    Reason

    Environmentalism for its own sake (rather than for humans' sake)

    Psychedelics

    Atheism

    Russia = Evil, Ukraine = Good

    Privacy

    Living

    Prediction markets

    democracy

    Biodiversity

    Virtue

    Money as corrupting force in politics

    91

    89

    87

    87

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    65

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    56

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    52

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    50

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    23

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    15

    OptionProbability

    Acquired by, or merged into, a (non-SPAC) public company

    Going public (e.g. IPO, SPAC, Direct listing)

    Other

    Bankruptcy or going out of business

    None of the other options happen by 2060

    40

    21

    18

    11

    11

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1780

    562

    OptionProbability

    Bing

    Word

    PowerPoint

    Any database/data analytics tool

    Excel

    Teams

    Visual Studio

    GitHub

    Video gaming

    Windows

    21

    20

    20

    20

    18

    18

    18

    18

    15

    11

    OptionProbability

    Fitbit

    Feedburner

    Blogger

    Google Chat

    Google News

    Google Classroom

    Google Analytics

    Google Meet

    Google Play (brand)

    Google Pixel (brand)

    Gemini

    Google Search

    Youtube

    Google Chrome

    Gmail

    Google Photos

    Google Maps

    Google Drive

    50

    50

    49

    33

    20

    20

    14

    10

    8

    6

    5

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    OptionProbability

    Fitbit

    Blogger

    Feedburner

    Google News

    Google Classroom

    Google Chat

    Google Photos

    Google Chrome

    Google Play (brand)

    Google Drive

    Google Maps

    Gemini

    Google Analytics

    Google Search

    Youtube

    Google Pixel (brand)

    Gmail

    Google Meet

    68

    31

    31

    31

    31

    22

    20

    14

    14

    14

    10

    7

    7

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    Chemistry Nobel 2026: Awarded Field(s) Multimarket

    Jan 2, 3:15 PMSep 29, 10:59 PM
    3320

    OptionProbability

    Analytical Chemistry

    Computational or Theoretical Chemistry

    Physical Chemistry

    Biochemistry or Chemical Biology

    Medicinal, Drug or Pharmacology-related Chemistry

    Nuclear chemistry

    Battery-related Chemistry

    Polymer chemistry

    Organic Synthesis

    Inorganic Chemistry

    Catalysis

    Metal Organic Frameworks (MOF)

    Chemical Thermodynamics

    Environmental or Climate-related Chemistry

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    24

    24

    24

    24

    24

    24

    100 monthly users on my 'achievements' journaling app?

    May 2, 12:26 AMJul 1, 11:52 PM
    51.19%chance
    3241

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1024

    976

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