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Prediction markets for and

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

84%chance

1291056730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

745

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.63%chance

793419120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25141

17457

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54%chance

602394096

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16776

7995

Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?

May 14, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.65%chance

476211319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4269

3314

Will my ex partner and I get back together within 3 years?

Aug 16, 1:44 AMJun 17, 6:59 AM

69.58%chance

189139847

OptionVotes

NO

YES

165099

32367

Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q3 2026

Aug 2, 4:38 AMJul 1, 11:59 PM

3528304

OptionProbability

Perplexity

Mistral

Cohere

Hugging Face

Thinking Machines Lab

Anthropic

31

19

17

13

8

7

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.13%chance

5415827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13239

9320

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?

Dec 29, 5:17 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

33.86%chance

508848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14496

6492

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM

39.18%chance

207516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12458

8027

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

423994

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by 2030?

Jul 24, 10:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66%chance

502545

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

901

Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029

Oct 5, 6:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

42%chance

62029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11755

8505

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