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Prediction markets for ANDE

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

84.44%chance

1581087574

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

767

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.51%chance

673585665

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15967

8749

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

10.09%chance

827508712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

57325

10606

Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?

Nov 7, 6:10 PMDec 1, 8:59 PM

45.91%chance

212146865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

922

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.31%chance

215110889

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12953

3240

Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q3 2026

Aug 2, 4:38 AMJul 1, 11:59 PM

4287203

OptionProbability

Perplexity

Mistral

Cohere

Hugging Face

Thinking Machines Lab

Anthropic

15

9

8

7

5

3

Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be alive on January 20, 2029 (noon ET)?

Nov 16, 5:04 AMJan 21, 5:01 AM

61.01%chance

21439601

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2073

1972

Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029

Oct 5, 6:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

22.74%chance

109098

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18437

5421

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM

38.43%chance

207725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12657

7901

Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?

Sep 23, 4:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.33%chance

226683

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13530

7320

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

444082

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by 2030?

Jul 24, 10:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66%chance

532756

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

901

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