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ANDE News

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

87%chance

1371086192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

923

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.57%chance

659577328

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16212

8514

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.99%chance

813504838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

57689

10565

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

30%chance

19192632

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11174

6095

Graham Platner and James Talarico both win their primaries?

Jan 4, 1:24 AMMar 3, 11:59 PM

49.12%chance

5360771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10097

9896

Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be alive on January 20, 2029 (noon ET)?

Nov 16, 5:04 AMJan 21, 5:01 AM

60%chance

20637609

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2022

2006

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM

38.43%chance

207725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12657

7901

Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029

Oct 5, 6:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

29.76%chance

95740

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15366

6505

Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?

Sep 23, 4:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.26%chance

205181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12030

8331

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

434062

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by 2030?

Jul 24, 10:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66%chance

532756

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

901

Peggy Flanagan and Graham Platner both elected senators in November 2026?

Feb 5, 12:33 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

44.12%chance

6782

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1070

903

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