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Prediction markets for ANDE

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

84%chance

1781110219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

745

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.23%chance

690660106

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17595

7355

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.81%chance

834517320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58416

10485

In what year will Trump be impeached AND removed from office?

Jan 29, 5:52 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

53147594

OptionProbability

Never.

2027

2028

2025

2026

2029

Sometime after 2029

91

3

3

1

1

1

0

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50.18%chance

223117871

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13138

3050

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

17243865

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1585

1297

Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be alive on January 20, 2029 (noon ET)?

Nov 16, 5:04 AMJan 21, 5:01 AM

61.58%chance

21439747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2104

1953

Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?

Sep 23, 4:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.53%chance

3512278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18053

5328

Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029

Oct 5, 6:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

22.08%chance

129959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18787

5319

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM

38.42%chance

227750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12660

7899

Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by the end of 2030?

Jul 24, 10:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66%chance

556339

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

901

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

454104

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

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