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Prediction markets for Angel One

Will we find that the dark forest theory of the universe is true?

Mar 25, 3:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.32%chance

1420948

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1438

927

Who will turn out to be the Angel? (Deltarune)

Jan 3, 6:07 AMDec 30, 11:00 PM

333210

OptionProbability

The Player

Noelle

Asriel

Nobody, the Angel is their own character

Dess Holiday

Other

Susie

Gaster

34

26

16

12

7

3

1

1

Will Waymo's driverless robotaxi service be suspended in CA for 30 days before the end of 2026? [description]

Dec 17, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.11%chance

92746

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3026

623

Will there be a large violent dispute between protesters and ICE in 2026?

Jan 10, 1:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.77%chance

232215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1418

706

Will Waymo's driverless robotaxi service be suspended in CA for 30 days before the end of 2027? [description]

Feb 15, 2:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.12%chance

91823

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2369

422

Will LeBron retire before the 2026 season

Jan 12, 5:59 PMOct 20, 11:59 PM

1.03%chance

201120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

980

10

Waymo available at Rio Rancho City Hall End of 2028

Dec 12, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.14%chance

5527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1420

704

Who will start for the Los Angeles Rams the first Week One that Matt Stafford is not on the roster?

Jan 27, 4:35 AMOct 1, 12:00 PM

5294

OptionProbability

Other

Jimmy Garoppolo

Stetson Bennett

Baker Mayfield

Lamar Jackson

Josh Allen

Joe Burrow

92

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will a singular event cause mass civil unrest in the United States by 2029

Jan 12, 2:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.54%chance

5111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

90

Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"?

May 8, 8:02 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

25.95%chance

4105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

59

How many LA Dodgers players that start on Opening Day will be injured at some point during the 2026 season?

Jan 22, 9:00 PMOct 1, 10:59 PM

488

OptionProbability

6-7

4-5

2-3

8-9

0-1

33

31

17

11

8

Will "Guardian Angels: LLM Personalization for Prod..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 21, 5:06 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.29%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

979

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