ANI News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

7.67%chance

836529327

OptionVotes

YES

69114

9469

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

110449937

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2029

Before January 2028

Before January 2030

Before January 2027

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Before January 2026

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.1%chance

88132314

OptionVotes

YES

2739

903

Will president Trump mint the coin at any point during his administration?

Feb 27, 4:46 AMJan 20, 2:59 AM

7.22%chance

8356330

OptionVotes

YES

35858

2789

Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?

Dec 7, 7:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.35%chance

5734209

OptionVotes

YES

11596

8623

Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?

May 30, 1:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26.61%chance

3519502

OptionVotes

YES

14866

7407

Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?

Sep 23, 4:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.89%chance

4216602

OptionVotes

YES

21156

4474

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

35.78%chance

4912818

OptionVotes

YES

12673

8134

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

51.05%chance

4410157

OptionVotes

YES

10938

8979

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

May 10, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.7%chance

298803

OptionVotes

YES

15025

6656

Will any non-astronaut be "commuting to the moon" before 2040?

Aug 17, 10:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.4%chance

266157

OptionVotes

YES

13741

8727

By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?

Mar 31, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.42%chance

12860

OptionVotes

YES

10622

9739

ANI News

Prediction markets for ANI

Prediction markets for ANI

Prediction markets for ANI

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Will president Trump mint the coin at any point during his administration?

Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?

Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?

Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

Will any non-astronaut be "commuting to the moon" before 2040?

By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?

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