ANI News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.63%chance

793419120

OptionVotes

YES

25141

17457

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

81158482

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2030

Before January 2029

Before January 2028

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

Before January 2027

Before January 2026

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83.71%chance

85130764

OptionVotes

YES

2919

859

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Sep 12, 5:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.13%chance

143124122

OptionVotes

YES

14461

9183

Will common shareholders recover any value from 23andMe's bankruptcy?

Mar 29, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.8%chance

1763384

OptionVotes

YES

17229

5804

Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.18%chance

4131423

OptionVotes

YES

13710

7373

Prediction markets for ANI

Prediction markets for ANI

Prediction markets for ANI

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Will common shareholders recover any value from 23andMe's bankruptcy?

Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?

Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?

QQQ Index falls below $350 at any point in 2025

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?

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