ANI News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.84%chance

832515935

OptionVotes

YES

58313

10496

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

103447144

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2027

Before January 2028

Before January 2030

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Before January 2026

Before January 2029

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.1%chance

88132314

OptionVotes

YES

2739

903

Will president Trump mint the coin at any point during his administration?

Feb 27, 4:46 AMJan 20, 2:59 AM

7.22%chance

8256327

OptionVotes

YES

35855

2789

Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?

May 30, 1:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

27.79%chance

3318998

OptionVotes

YES

14362

7595

Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?

Dec 7, 7:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.46%chance

2512587

OptionVotes

YES

10935

9145

Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?

Sep 23, 4:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.91%chance

3511987

OptionVotes

YES

18344

5235

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

51.05%chance

4310153

OptionVotes

YES

10938

8979

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

43.81%chance

284965

OptionVotes

YES

10585

9510

Will any US state secede before 2050?

Feb 20, 6:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.58%chance

262101

OptionVotes

YES

10197

8675

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

241567

OptionVotes

YES

1201

926

By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?

Mar 31, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.8%chance

11360

OptionVotes

YES

10122

9934

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By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Will president Trump mint the coin at any point during his administration?

Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?

Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?

Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Will any US state secede before 2050?

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?

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