Animal Político News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

A new supreme court justice appointed

Fair elections in 2028

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Approval < 35%

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

trump gets hospitalized

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

Vances have another kid

US national bitcoin reserve created

The US leaves the World Health Organization

Government shutdown

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

USA experiences a recession.

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Joe Biden dies

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Trump announces he is tired of winning

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

John Bolton indicted

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Dow rises above 65,000

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

The department of education gets desolved

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Tesla

Another pandemic

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Repeal obamacare

Trump visits Africa

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

54 or more Republican senate seats

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

New national park created

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

55 or more Republican senate seats

JD Vance elected President

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

Trump gets covid (again)

Constitutional Amendment

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Approval < 25%

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Trump and Obama shake hands

BTC falls below $38,000

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Starship lands on Mars

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump dies

Trump runs for a third term

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Laura Loomer gets any government role

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Record level unemployment

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump bans abortion nationwide

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Trump gets shot

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Anthony Fauci is indicted

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

US Invasion of any North/South American country

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

A major war in Asia occurs

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Trump and Melania divorce

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

SpaceX is nationalized

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

American Manned Lunar Landing

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

New US national anthem

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

Trump says a racial slur

10% fewer government agencies

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

"covfefe" posted again

Cannabis is federally legalized

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump is assassinated

Constitutional Amendment

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump loses the fake tan

A hurricane will be nuked

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

For at least one day, the model was generally available to anyone in the United States willing to pay enough without waiting lists or "beta" programs

It is discussed during a segment of "HatGPT"

By default, the generated videos will be watermarked

A competing model has challenged Sora's dominance in the text-to-video space

A poll of Manifold users will say that 20% or less have made a Sora video in the last month

OpenAI will be sued over the model

It was trained on data created in a physics/game engine (eg Unreal Engine)

A post claiming Sora video is real will go viral with > 1 million engagements

It will be noticeably worse at or largely unable to generate fast-paced animation

A second major version of the model has been released

A video produced by the model has been used for widely spread misinformation, as reported by a major news outlet

It has been referenced in a legal case about deepfakes

costs for an average 1 minute HD (or higher quality) video will be lower than $0.50

Video will include sound

A major studio will use this in a movie or tv show

It can be used during conversations with ChatGPT on the OpenAI website

It prompts the Hard Fork Podcast to rant about AI model names

A youtube video made only with Sora will get > 100M views

It will be pay-per-use (or credit based) as opposed to as part of a monthly subscription

It will be jailbroken to make a porn video

it'll be legaly banned in at least one EU country

A youtube movie >2h will be made with only Sora and splicing videos together will get > 10M views

At least 2 Manifold questions will contain a Sora-generated video in their header

Sora will be part of GPT model

It will be the most popular text to video tool (determined by google search trends)

Public access was revoked after release, even if it is later restored

There will be a new monthly subscription that includes sora and dalle for creatives

It has been integrated as a feature on a major social media platform

It can generate videos over 10 minutes long

It has a logo separate from the OpenAI logo

It will be the SOTA for text to video

It has been renamed

It will be free to use

A poll of Manifold users will say that 30% or more have created a Sora video in the last month

The model has had a non-trivial effect on the everday life of the average American, as judged by @Bayesian

It can create a fully coherent short film from a prompt (20-40 minutes)

The Sora line of models proves to be useful for purposes where the video is secondary, such as research into physics, medicine, and weather

A third major version of the model has been released

OpenAI will release the number of model parameters

Full description of model architecture will be public

Eliezer Yudkowsky states or implies that future versions of the Sora line of models - specifically, by name - are an existential threat to civilization

The Sora line of models are being used as simulators for legal investigations - including but not limited to predicting events leading to accidents and crimes

A version of the model was the cause of the YES resolution of the "Weak AGI" Metaculus market

OpenAI will lose a lawsuit over the model

Eliezer Yudkowsky has stated or implied that the current version or an obsolete version of the model poses or had posed an existential threat to civilization

A nyt bestselling author will release their own bestseller movie/tv adaptation using sora

Sexism and racism, among other forms of prejudice, are responsible for worse health outcomes, and it’s not overly dramatic for people to treat those issues as public health/safety concerns.

Prediction markets are good

[*] ...and things will improve in the future

Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated

Authoritarian populism is bad actually

We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.

Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)

Most organized religion are false

The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.

Prolonged school closures because of COVID were socially devastating.

The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.

Nuclear power is by far the best solution to climate change. [N]

Pineapple pizza tastes good

The Many Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics

Humans have a responsibility to figure out what if anything we can do about wildlife suffering.

Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries

First-past-the-post electoral systems are not merely flawed but outright less democratic than proportional or preferential alternatives

Liberal-democracy is good actually

Peeing in the shower is good and everyone should do it

It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.

We need a bigger welfare state than we have now.

Many amphetamines and psychedelics have tremendous therapeutic value when guided by an established practitioner.

The proliferation of microplastics will be viewed as more harmful to the environment than burning fossil fuels, in the long term

American agents are in the highest positions in government for more than half the world.

Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.

We should give every American food stamps, in a fixed dollar amount, with no means testing or work requirements or disqualification for criminal convictions.

Metaculus will take over Manifold in more serious topics, and Manifold will be known as the "unserious" prediction market site

Given what we know about the social and health effects of being fired, even if abolishing at will employment has efficiency costs it is likely worth it.

The overall state of the world is pretty good... [*]

Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.

Dreams analysis is a legitimate means of gaining personal insight.

Mobile UX will be a key explaining factor in explaining the stories of Manifold and Metaculus.

If a developed nation moves from democratic to authoritarian government today, it should be expected to end up poorer, weaker, sicker, and stupider.

Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

California is wildly overrated.

The United States doesn't need a strong third party.

Being a billionaire is morally wrong.

Racial Colorblindness is the only way to defeat racism

People will look back on using animal products as a moral disgrace on the level of chattel slavery.

There's a reasonable chance of a militant green/communist movement that gains popular support in the coming decade.

Eating meat is morally wrong in most cases.

Political libertarianism

You should bet NO on this option

The Windows kernel is better than Linux; it’s just all the bloat piled on top that makes it worse

[N], and to the extent climate activists are promoting other kinds of solutions, they are actively making the situation worse by diverting attention and resources from nuclear power.

White people are the least racist of any racial group

Technology is not making our lives easier or more fulfilling.

COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.

Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites

God is evil

A sandwich is a type of hot dog

Some people have genuine psychic capabilities

Astrology is a legitimate means of gaining personal insight.

Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development.

Mereological nihilism (composite objects don't exist)

It's acceptable for our systems of punishment to be retributive in part

AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns

China not having real democracy does more good than harm

Dentistry is mostly wasted effort.

Moral Hazard isn’t real, and all the purported instances of it can be chalked up to coincidence or confounding variables

Reincarnation is a real phenomenon

Governments should not support parents for having children that they cannot take care of

Mass surveillance (security cameras everywhere) has more positives than negatives

Donald Trump would have been a better president than Joe Biden

SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud

Future generations will say that on balance the world reacted appropriately after learning that fossil fuels cause climate change. That the balance between addressing the problem and slowing economies was just about right.

Humans don't have free will.

The next American moon landing will be faked

AI art is better than human art

Communism just wasn't implemented well, next time it will work

The human race should voluntarily choose to go extinct via nonviolent means (antinatalism).

The first American moon landing was faked

Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes

LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025

RV events

Police as crime solvers

Prison as corrective

Libertarian free will

LessWrong is a source of pure wisdom

Working gives us meaning.

Merit/desert

Neoliberalism

Proof School

LSD unlocks a deeper consciousness

IQ as an objective measure of general intelligence

Rule a Country (discord server)

Religion

Peer reviewed studies - lots of junk routinely passes peer review, replication/post publication peer review are much better indicators of quality of research

The meaning of life

Quantum computing

Death

meta-irony

Cryptocurrency

Pessimism about the future of the world

Alcohol is needed for life to be fun

Founders/Entrepreneurs

On Manifold, mana inflation

The attitude that many of us tend to take way too many things way too seriously (serious submission)

Humans being innately (as opposed to instrumentally) more important than other animals

Free will in general

Having kids

An apple a day

Nihilism

Clinical Psychology

meta-submissions

focus on X-risks within EA as opposed to current issues

Nuclear fusion as the energy of the future

Children as planetary burden

Anti-capitalism

Analytic philosophy

Continental philosophy

Ockham’s razor

Free Trade

Deontological ethics

Capitalism

Utilitarianism

Freedom

Modernity

The analytic-synthetic distinction

Veganism

Technological progress as a good thing

Moral relativism

Classical literature

Artificial Intelligence

Being in shape

Rationality

Effective Altruism

AI Doomerism

Longevity/immortality

Politics

Therapy

Free Speech

The opinion that neoliberalism is overrated

The anti- AI art movement

Extended Travelling (as opposed to <4 week vacation)

Taking things seriously

Enlightenment

Unconditional love

Reason

Environmentalism for its own sake (rather than for humans' sake)

Donald Trump being the worst thing for the US and the world

Atheism

Russia = Evil, Ukraine = Good

Psychedelics

Privacy

Living

Prediction markets

democracy

Biodiversity

Virtue

[With five or more methods]

With their bare hands

With a weapon that the victim brought to the fight.

With a gadget or other ingenious device from Q

Other

With a hand gun

In the dark

With a long arm (a firearm larger than a pistol).

With a Walther PP or PPK handgun

By causing a structural collapse under them.

Slap

Drowning them

By pushing them off something high up

Sideswiping them with a car

Choking them

Silently, but deadly

With a named MMA submission (e.g., rear-naked choke, arm bar, kimura lock, etc.)

With a knife

Dropping something heavy on them

With electricity

By driving over them in a car

Biting

With a Kalashnikov Rifle (e.g. AK47)

Flambé /Fire

hurts someone's feelings (character in question must state this)

With a timed explosive device

By opening a hatch/airlock

With poison

Drone strike

With his cock (like a fighting Rooster; get yer minds outta that gutter)

Electrocution / With electricity

With a power tool normally used for construction

Lures them into a booby-trapped room

By calling in artillery or missile strike

Arranging for them to be attacked by an animal

With a piece of sporting equipment

Sonic weapon

With a chain

Flying/jump/drop kick

With a grenade

With a flamethrower

Punch to the groin

With a lazer based weapon

With a missle

Friendly fire (Bond unintentionally injures an ally)

With nanobots

Ejector seat

Big stick

With a sling shot

Crashing a plane into them

With a harpoon gun

With a crossbow

By pushing them into a spinning blade

By shaking them, not stirring them

By riding over them with a motorcycle

Killing them with kindness

Non-knife kitchen utensil

By running into them with a submarine

Rape

With microwaves

With a motherfucking snake on a motherfucking plane

Causing them to crash into a wall by painting a tunnel onto it

Number of president executive orders in 2025

Number of USA presidential pardons in 2025

Doomsday Clock seconds to midnight

Largest earthquake in 2025 (eg 7.5 would be 75%)

Bitcoin value (eg 50K would be 50%)

How many total videos on Joseph Anderson's Youtube Channel

Age of Nobel Peace Prize winner in 2025

How many countries recognize the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic

How many nuclear power plants operating in the USA

Number of Republican Senators

Highest Number of Home Runs hit by a single player in 2025 MLB season

Last 2 digits of Minecraft Bedrock's most recent patch (eg 1.50.30 would be 30%)

Latest ChatGPT version number released (eg 6.5 would be 65%)

How many new shows on Broadway in 2025

How many points the winning Superbowl team has

Jersey number of the Cy Young award winner

How many US states have legalized recreational marijuana

How many points the losing Superbowl team has

Manifold's average MAU (eg 25k would be 25%)

How many SpaceX Launches in Dec of 2025

Jersey number of the Heisman trophy winner

Number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic hurricane season

Number of anime profile pics in Manifold's top 100 traders

Number of trillion dollar companies

Adhering to a regular sleep schedule (>7.5h, same time, good sleep hygiene)

Regular weightlifting

Consciously investing in interpersonal relationships

Confine work meetings to 1-2 days per week rather than letting them spread out over the week. (File all-day busy events on other days so they don't get anything scheduled.)

Regular cardio exercise

Quitting all social media/"junk food" web content

Try to chat with people in your day to day life who are willing to

Negotiate for non-monetary QoL improvements at work rather than salary, notably additional vacation time or 4-day weeks

Mediation/mindfulness practice

Self-compassion practice

Gratitude journaling

Daily meditation practice

Seeing a therapist regularly

Minimize commute time or switch to near-100% remote work

Writing down your plans for the day every morning

Adopting a cat/dog

Abstaining from drugs and alcohol (caffeine not included)

Doing charity work

Reduce or eliminate contact with people who are unethical, rude, disrespectful, or who don't honor their commitments

Building and using a lumenator

Yoga practice

Weekly reviews

Intentionally spending 2+ hours outdoors most days

Taking a psychiatric medication

Quitting video games

Enrolling in an educational program (e.g. coding school or graduate degree)

Moving to a new city

Adhering to an "early bird" circadian rhythm (e.g. 9pm-5am sleep)

Adopting a small animal (rabbit, rat, fish, snake, etc.)

Daily cold showers

Quitting caffeine

Fasting

Mass-movement political advocacy for AI regulation (like "PauseAI")

Preventing S-Risks

Wild-animal welfare

Mental-health / subjective wellbeing interventions in LMIC

Farmed-invertebrate welfare (shrimp, insects, octopi, etc)

Mitigation of AI propaganda / persuasion / "botpocalypse" impacts

Alcohol, tobacco, & sugar taxation

Research into digital sentience / the nature of consciousness

Climate geoengineeering

Preventing stable totalitarianism

Space governance / space colonization

Georgism (aka land value taxes)

Approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc

Cryonics & brain-emulation research

Human intelligence augmentation / embryo selection research

Charter cities / affinity cities / network states

Civilizational-preservation bunkers

No policy response by October 1, 2025

DOJ investigation (e.g., into Paramount, Comedy Central, or creators of South Park)

FCC-related action (e.g., rule change proposal, enforcement targeting streaming or animation content)

Executive order or presidential directive related to media, satire, or political speech

It includes 3-D animated media

It consists of/includes "Generation 6" according to the consensus of fan communities

It includes a mobile game (video game available on at least one major smartphone platform)

It includes a new comic book series

A new brony convention occurs whose name makes a reference to it (character, location, etc.)

It includes at least an hour of animated media

It introduces a new character in animated media with the same name as a character in a prior generation

It introduces anthropomorphic/humanoid "pony" characters

Shawn Levy's Starfighter

Ahsoka season 2

Jon Favreau's The Mandalorian and Grogu

At least one movie written by Simon Kinberg

James Mangold's Dawn of the Jedi

A movie directed by Taika Waititi

Visions season 3

New Jedi Order movie (with Rey as main character)

The Ninth Jedi anime series

A Droid Story animated series

Zero Company (strategy game by Respawn)

Eclipse (action adventure game by Quantic Dream)

KOTOR remake by Aspyr

Amy Hennig's game

Jedi 3 (sequel to Fallen Order and Survivor)

Donald Glover's Lando movie

Patty Jenkins' Rogue Squadron

Darth Maul show

Other

Orange

Science Saru

JC Staff

Trigger