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Prediction markets for Animation

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.78%chance

19278703

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3186

1087

Will the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws?

Apr 29, 12:45 AMJan 14, 12:59 AM

2.79%chance

9658132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

26360

741

When will a new mainline Animal Crossing game be released on a Nintendo console?

Sep 11, 9:12 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

3828282

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

Not before 2030

2026

2025 or earlier

40

31

19

7

2

1

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2027?

Feb 27, 12:30 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

50%chance

15028221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4104

1415

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2026?

Feb 27, 12:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.17%chance

8813634

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2113

469

Will there be a year, before 2040, in which total AI suffering outweighs total 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 16, 11:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.26%chance

8111182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2852

1141

Will AI allow us to talk to animals by 2034?

May 26, 12:16 PMMay 26, 1:59 PM

56.11%chance

589163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1131

884

If Rational Animations invites viewers to read LessWrong in a video, how many new users will join LessWrong as a result?

May 4, 10:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.74%chance

965688

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1903

1563

Will the animal rights movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

Oct 21, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75.54%chance

713494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1402

1054

Rational Animations Stock

Jan 4, 12:13 PMJan 11, 10:59 PM

73.82%chance

151782

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1679

595

Will there be a year, before 2030, in which net AI suffering outweighs net 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 17, 12:01 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.08%chance

121034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

816

Complex communication with a non-human animal by 2050

Jun 15, 10:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50%chance

10645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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