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Prediction markets for ANIME

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.92%chance

18076997

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2292

1619

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2027?

Feb 27, 12:30 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

76.17%chance

14426832

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3357

3047

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2025?

Feb 27, 12:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.99%chance

14013336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4206

1444

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2026?

Feb 27, 12:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.77%chance

7912282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1290

1121

Will there be a year, before 2040, in which total AI suffering outweighs total 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 16, 11:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.12%chance

7910829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4258

871

Will AI allow us to talk to animals by 2034?

May 26, 12:16 PMMay 26, 1:59 PM

66.45%chance

486266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1407

711

If Rational Animations invites viewers to read LessWrong in a video, how many new users will join LessWrong as a result?

May 4, 10:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.98%chance

955648

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1951

1524

When will a new mainline Animal Crossing game be released on a Nintendo console?

Sep 11, 9:12 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

295329

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2026

2029

Not before 2030

2025 or earlier

35

23

15

14

9

4

Will the animal rights movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

Oct 21, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.54%chance

703479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1387

1102

Rational Animations Stock

Jan 4, 12:13 PMJan 11, 10:59 PM

72.87%chance

141742

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1639

610

Will there be a year, before 2030, in which net AI suffering outweighs net 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 17, 12:01 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.08%chance

121034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

816

Complex communication with a non-human animal by 2050

Jun 15, 10:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50%chance

9595

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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