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Prediction markets for ANIME

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.48%chance

18377199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2274

1635

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2027?

Feb 27, 12:30 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

76.17%chance

14426832

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3357

3047

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2025?

Feb 27, 12:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.62%chance

14523055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13887

261

When will a new mainline Animal Crossing game be released on a Nintendo console?

Sep 11, 9:12 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

3621650

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2026

Not before 2030

2025 or earlier

39

26

17

9

8

1

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2026?

Feb 27, 12:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.77%chance

7912282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1290

1121

Will there be a year, before 2040, in which total AI suffering outweighs total 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 16, 11:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.12%chance

7910829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4258

871

Will AI allow us to talk to animals by 2034?

May 26, 12:16 PMMay 26, 1:59 PM

70.92%chance

506882

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1562

640

If Rational Animations invites viewers to read LessWrong in a video, how many new users will join LessWrong as a result?

May 4, 10:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.18%chance

955673

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1920

1549

Will the animal rights movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

Oct 21, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75.54%chance

713494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1402

1054

Will there be a year, before 2030, in which net AI suffering outweighs net 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 17, 12:01 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.08%chance

121034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

816

Nonhuman animal becomes TIME Person of the Year by end 2030?

Dec 1, 1:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.68%chance

12982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2082

604

Complex communication with a non-human animal by 2050

Jun 15, 10:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50%chance

9595

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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