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Top stories

ANSES Confirms September 2025 Payment Schedule Including 300,000 Pesos Deposit and Widow's Pension Termination

ANSES Confirms September 2025 Payment Schedule Including 300,000 Pesos Deposit and Widow's Pension Termination

Authors

5

4 months ago

ANSES Announces AUH Bonuses Up to 750,000 Pesos, 320,000 Pesos August Bonus, Pension Increases, and Paper Check Phase-Out

ANSES Announces AUH Bonuses Up to 750,000 Pesos, 320,000 Pesos August Bonus, Pension Increases, and Paper Check Phase-Out

Authors

5

4 months ago

ANSES to Pay 400,000 Pesos Bonus, Raise Average Pension to 1,507 Euros as August Spending Hits 13.6 Billion Euros

ANSES to Pay 400,000 Pesos Bonus, Raise Average Pension to 1,507 Euros as August Spending Hits 13.6 Billion Euros

Authors

8

3 months ago

Prediction markets for ANSES

Elbaf Megathread (Answers will resolve as they occur)

Aug 19, 2:49 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

248115442

OptionProbability

Loki face reveal

Shanks backstory with Garling involved

Other holy knights beside Garling face reveal (at least one)

Usopp powerup (haki or new weapon)

Dragon finally makes a move

Man marked by flames is revealed

Luffy finds out that the Bartolomeo Pirates were destroyed by Shanks's crew

Imu face reveal

Vivi rejoins the crew

Kidd washes up on the shore and is seen in the arc

Cross guild arrives on Elbaf

Big Mom returns (must be present in-person)

Shanks's crew do a davy back fight with the strawhats

100

100

100

81

75

67

60

29

26

13

11

9

7

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Sep 16, 8:34 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

89.93%chance

11745514

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2062

1522

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Jun 28, 2:39 AMOct 28, 11:33 AM

44.86%chance

7633107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

707

Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030?

Oct 5, 10:21 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

87.82%chance

426398

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1350

901

In the Crisis in Cosmology, the CMBR answer is closer to correct than the supernovae results

Oct 27, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.12%chance

151633

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

982

Who will be the next permanent host of The Daily Show? [Add Answers]

Sep 4, 5:51 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

141289

OptionProbability

Josh Johnson

Hasan Minhaj

Desi Lydic

Ronny Chieng

No permanent host by 2030

Stephen Colbert

Other

Michael Kosta

Dulcé Sloan

Troy Iwata

Grace Kuhlenschmidt

Lewis Black

Jordan Klepper

John Leguizamo

Leslie Jones

Roy Wood Jr.

Jon Stewart

Trevor Noah

35

11

10

6

6

6

6

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

If there exists a super-intelligent AI, would majority of AI researchers answer Yes to "Have we reached AGI?" ?

Jul 3, 5:50 AMDec 31, 6:29 AM

55.02%chance

241067

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1134

688

Will China acquire Taiwan through the equivalent of Anschluss?

Jan 2, 2:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.45%chance

15824

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1224

811

Before 2026, will frontier AI models get much better at expressing calibrated uncertainty in their answers?

Feb 6, 12:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.35%chance

8758

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1373

728

Will Manifold add Metaculus style probability-distribution answers before 2033?

Dec 10, 8:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.71%chance

12507

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

915

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 1% or less?

Feb 3, 4:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.27%chance

11293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1206

937

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

988

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