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ANSES Confirms September 2025 Payment Schedule Including 300,000 Pesos Deposit and Widow's Pension Termination

9 months ago

ANSES Announces AUH Bonuses Up to 750,000 Pesos, 320,000 Pesos August Bonus, Pension Increases, and Paper Check Phase-Out

9 months ago

ANSES to Pay 400,000 Pesos Bonus, Raise Average Pension to 1,507 Euros as August Spending Hits 13.6 Billion Euros

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ANSES to Pay 400,000 Pesos Bonus, Raise Average Pension to 1,507 Euros as August Spending Hits 13.6 Billion Euros

8 months ago

Elbaf Megathread (Answers will resolve as they occur)

Aug 19, 2:49 AMFeb 1, 5:59 AM

273128628

OptionProbability

Loki face reveal

Shanks backstory with Garling involved

Imu face reveal

Other holy knights beside Garling face reveal (at least one)

Usopp powerup (haki or new weapon)

Luffy finds out that the Bartolomeo Pirates were destroyed by Shanks's crew

Man marked by flames is revealed

Dragon finally makes a move

Vivi rejoins the crew

Big Mom returns (must be present in-person)

Cross guild arrives on Elbaf

Kidd washes up on the shore and is seen in the arc

Shanks's crew do a davy back fight with the strawhats

100

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Sep 16, 8:34 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80.91%chance

12754708

OptionVotes

YES

1679

1079

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Jun 28, 2:39 AMOct 28, 11:33 AM

43.1%chance

8033265

OptionVotes

YES

1237

678

Musk v. openAI trial prop bets [add answers]

Apr 30, 1:43 AMJul 30, 1:40 AM

9529394

OptionProbability

Defense win, case is dismissed or no remedies are ordered

Someone cries on the stand

Total damages awarded (even if funneled back to the non-profit) exceed $10 billion

Surprise witness: Ilya or Mira are called to testify against Altman

Licensing Restriction: The court restricts or nullifies OpenAI's exclusive licensing agreement with Microsoft (MSFT).

Structural Reversion: OpenAI is ordered to dissolve its for-profit arm or return to a structure where the non-profit has total veto power over all commercial activity.

Musk is held in comtempt or fined for posting on X

Executive Ouster: Court orders the removal or suspension of any current OpenAI executive (Altman, Brockman, etc.).

The court admits any conversation between Musk and an AI (i.e. Grok or ChatGPT)

Forced Open Sourcing: The court mandates the public release of weights or research for a specific frontier model (e.g., GPT-4 or GPT-5.5).

OpenAI abandon answer independence on ads before 2028?

Feb 11, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.58%chance

13613104

OptionVotes

YES

1406

711

Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030?

Oct 5, 10:21 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

88.8%chance

438013

OptionVotes

YES

1460

886

In the Crisis in Cosmology, the CMBR answer is closer to correct than the supernovae results

Oct 27, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.12%chance

151633

OptionVotes

YES

1045

982

If there exists a super-intelligent AI, would majority of AI researchers answer Yes to "Have we reached AGI?" ?

Jul 3, 5:50 AMDec 31, 6:29 AM

65.99%chance

261249

OptionVotes

YES

973

937

Will China acquire Taiwan through the equivalent of Anschluss?

Jan 2, 2:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.67%chance

15870

OptionVotes

YES

1298

765

Will Manifold add Metaculus style probability-distribution answers before 2033?

Dec 10, 8:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.63%chance

13657

OptionVotes

YES

1265

856

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 1% or less?

Feb 3, 4:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.27%chance

11293

OptionVotes

YES

1206

937

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

YES

1008

988

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Elbaf Megathread (Answers will resolve as they occur)

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Musk v. openAI trial prop bets [add answers]

OpenAI abandon answer independence on ads before 2028?

Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030?

In the Crisis in Cosmology, the CMBR answer is closer to correct than the supernovae results

If there exists a super-intelligent AI, would majority of AI researchers answer Yes to "Have we reached AGI?" ?

Will China acquire Taiwan through the equivalent of Anschluss?

Will Manifold add Metaculus style probability-distribution answers before 2033?

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 1% or less?

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

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