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Prediction markets for Ant

Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date

Jul 25, 6:37 PMJun 30, 6:35 PM

302443638

OptionProbability

Before 2026-09-01

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before August 2025

Before September 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

Before January 2026

Before February 2026

Before 2026-03-01

Before 2026-02-15

Before 2026-02-04

Before 2026-02-08

Before 2026-02-05

Before 2026-02-06

84

82

78

47

14

5

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?

Dec 20, 2:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

158141628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2002

501

Will Anthropic surpass OpenAI valuation in 2026?

Jan 4, 5:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.19%chance

18094791

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3014

2926

Anthropic flips OpenAI before 2028?

Sep 5, 1:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.1%chance

10658046

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10027

9987

Will Anthropic escape the "supply chain risk" designation by EOY 2026?

Feb 27, 11:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.08%chance

22850019

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15809

7952

AWS stops offering Anthropic models to US customers via Amazon Bedrock before May 1, 2026

Feb 28, 3:56 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

3.31%chance

2548862

OptionVotes

YES

NO

54089

1849

Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?

Jan 31, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.69%chance

8616597

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12850

7975

¿Habra mocion de censura al presidente Sanchez en España antes de Agosto del 26?

Jan 13, 9:58 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

25.91%chance

5114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

59

Will the next full-length film featuring Paul Rudd as Ant Man be better than I expect it to be?

Feb 11, 1:12 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

49.02%chance

210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

89

Will "Stress Testing Deliberative Alignment for Ant..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 19, 12:14 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Make answers created during market creation on independent multi choice start with the minimum answer ante liquidity

Oct 17, 5:23 PM

00

Nash Pit, Manifest 2025: The Ante Pot

Jun 4, 1:51 AM

00

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