Anthem News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

A major war in Asia occurs

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

Trump visits Africa

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

The US leaves the World Health Organization

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

New James Bond actor is presented

Fair elections in 2028

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Approval < 35%

Kennedy Center goes bankrupt

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

A new supreme court justice appointed

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

US national bitcoin reserve created

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

trump gets hospitalized

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Vances have another kid

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

USA experiences a recession.

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

Trump and Obama shake hands

Kennedy Center is repurposed

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Dow rises above 65,000

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump says a racial slur

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Trump gets covid (again)

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

US Invasion of any North/South American country

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Tesla

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

10% fewer government agencies

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

BTC falls below $38,000

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

New national park created

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

Kennedy Center is demolished

Trump announces he is tired of winning

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Constitutional Amendment

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Joe Biden dies

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Another pandemic

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

JD Vance elected President

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

American Manned Lunar Landing

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

Trump proposes renaming or demolishing the Kennedy SPACE Center

The department of education gets desolved

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Starship lands on Mars

Record level unemployment

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

Trump dies

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Approval < 25%

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump loses the fake tan

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

NATO invokes Article 5

US Treasury 10-year bond rate > 7%

Trump gets shot

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

"covfefe" posted again

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump runs for a third term

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump extends his term past 4 years

54 or more Republican senate seats

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Trump is assassinated

Cannabis is federally legalized

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Trump threatens Israel with military action

55 or more Republican senate seats

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

A national ban on gender-affirming care

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Repeal obamacare

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

War is declared against another nation

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Constitutional Amendment

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump and Melania divorce

SpaceX is nationalized

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump accurately quotes a Bible verse with its Book Chapter:Verse citation, verbally and without reading from a script/notes/autocue, excluding Genesis 1:1

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump drinks a beer

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Anthony Fauci is convicted

A hurricane will be nuked

New US national anthem

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

@Joshua

@Gabrielle

@dreev

@Anthem

@Lorxus

@WilliamEhlhardt

@jgyou aka JGY

@jcb

@brubsby (NO)

@tfae

@jskf

@bohaska

@DylanSlagh

@AlexbGoode (NO)

@AnthonyPeterson (NO)

@tiswtr (NO)

@roma

@snoozingnewt (NO)

@case (NO)

@Nikos (NO)

@Primer

@Ernie

Other

@JoshuaB (NO)

@dylanslagh [dup]

@firstuserhere (NO)

@ArkPoint (NO)

@vansh (NO)

@Charlie (NO)

@CamillePerrin (NO)

YES

YES

Failed 4th down attempt

Teams are a rematch of a previous super bowl

Current or former US President in attendance

First turnover is an interception

Team will be scoreless for a quarter

Player spikes ball during a touchdown celebration

Player crying during national anthem

Both teams make 33 yard or longer field goal

Score is tied again after 0-0

Super Bowl MVP is a quarterback

Winning team has more passing yards

Any player scores 7+ points individually

Tom Brady is at the game

Winning team has more total yards

Kick is missed

Head coach throws a challenge flag

Announcer says "tush push"

Taylor Swift is at the game

Coin toss is 'heads'

Coin toss is 'tails'

National anthem is over 2 minutes

Gatorade shower color is yellow/green

Player flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct

A player's jersey gets torn

Player shown eating a snack on the sideline

Head coach or player throws something on sideline in frustration

Quarterback runs in for a touchdown

50+ yard field goal is made

Team scores in last 30 seconds of either half

A player catches the ball with one hand

An administrative timeout is taken

First score is a touchdown

Team that scores last wins the game

First play from scrimmage is a rush

Jersey number of last touchdown scorer is even

Illegal use of hands to the face penalty given

Final score is the same as the final score of a previous Super Bowl

[LX total score] > [LIX total score]

Player goes into the blue tent

Broadcast uses video from pylon camera

No penalties in the 4th quarter

Ruling on the field gets overturned by review

Trick play results in positive yardage

Player with prime jersey number scores a touchdown

All quarters have points scored (no 0-0 quarters)

Super Bowl MVP threw an interception or fumbled during the game

No penalty called in last 5 minutes of the game

Rules analyst disagrees with a decision a ref made

Any current or former US president is directly referenced by announcer

Penalty for 'roughing the passer' is given

Holding call in 4th quarter

Chains used to measure first down 1+ times

WM Phoenix Open winning score under par is higher than Super Bowl kicking points

Player knocks non-player over on the sideline

Winning team has more turnovers

First score is a field goal

Team scores in all 4 quarters (same team)

Winning margin is 10+ points

Both teams complete their first pass attempt

A player listed over 260 lbs scores a touchdown

Any player scores 2+ touchdowns

Puppy Bowl 2026 MVP shares a first or last name with the SB MVP

Last play is 'victory formation'

Unauthorized person gets on the field of play

Player gets carted off the field

Player retires immediately after game

Backup QB gets put in the game

Team has 5+ sacks

Kicker is iced

2 point conversion attempted

At least one team has 0 points at halftime

Both teams have a 4th quarter lead

Super Bowl is won by a bird team

There is a doink

Team is a first time super bowl winner

Successful 2-point conversion

First drive of game is a '3 and out'

Team leading at halftime loses

Streaker (fully or partially nude on field)

Play with one or more attempted laterals occurs

Score is tied at half-time

Any player has a 60+ yard reception

Player gets ejected from the game

Successful 'hail mary' pass is made

QB catches a pass from any player

Team scores in the last 30 seconds of the game

Final score is scorigami

Onside kick attempt

Any QB throws for 400 or more yards in the game

Stadium blackout occurs

Pick 6 occurs

Kick is successfully blocked

Any player to score an octopus

Special teams touchdown

Game goes to OT

A safety is scored

Points scored in the first 90 seconds

Altercation occurs between a player and a coach

NO

Metalhead

Joan is Awful

Other

Hated in the Nation

USS Callister

Fifteen Million Merits

San Junipero

The Waldo Moment

White Christmas

Hang the DJ

Nosedive

The Entire History of You

Shut up and Dance

The National Anthem

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES