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Prediction markets for Anthropic AI

A major tech company, besides Anthropic, reports at least 98% of its code is AI-generated before April 1, 2026

Mar 11, 2:59 PMApr 1, 9:48 AM

16.2%chance

406387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2277

440

Will Apple power Siri using an AI thats the IP of Anthropic before 2026?

May 25, 4:58 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM

1.13%chance

284361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1906

28

Will Anthropic, OpenAI, Deep-mind or Meta publish an app mainly for AI Agents by end of March 2026?

Jan 31, 1:19 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

43.23%chance

172811

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1146

873

Will Anthropic, OpenAI, Deep-mind or Meta publish an app mainly for AI Agents in February 2026?

Jan 31, 1:18 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

25.52%chance

132210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1709

585

Major AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic will stop investing in MCP in 2026

Jan 2, 7:42 AMJan 8, 7:59 AM

74.39%chance

4718

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1704

587

Will Anthropic announce a new, frontier AI model >4.5 (e.g. Sonnet 4.6, 4.7, 5.0) before March 1, 2026?

Jan 31, 4:05 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

86.73%chance

19663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

242

55

Will evidence emerge that Anthropic's pursuit of regulatory capture is aided by U.S. Adversaries by 2027 year end?

Feb 5, 5:21 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

10.17%chance

9405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

675

266

Will Anthropic, before 2035, completely halt development of AI and attempt to persuade other organizations to do so?

Mar 7, 1:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.07%chance

12335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1199

914

Has the development of AI been notably (> 50%) shaped by the anthropic principle until May 2024?

May 6, 1:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.21%chance

1200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

297

34

How difficult will Anthropic say the AI alignment problem is?

Aug 8, 7:48 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7135

OptionProbability

Intermediate scenario

No such statement before 2030

Optimistic scenario

Pessimistic scenario

56

29

11

4

Will Lucas Beyer (AI Researcher) work at either Anthropic or xAI before 2027?

Sep 12, 1:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.12%chance

3120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

45

How many ads will Anthropic air which have been posted on their twitter during the Super Bowl?

Feb 5, 12:06 AMFeb 9, 5:00 AM

291

OptionProbability

Other

1

2

0

All 3

25

21

21

17

17

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