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Prediction markets for Anthropic AI

If Anthropic caves to the Pentagon in Q1 2026, will it remain a leading AI lab in 2027?

Feb 27, 2:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1410172

OptionProbability

Anthropic does not cave: stays a leading lab

Anthropic does not cave: stops being a leading lab

Anthropic caves: stays a leading lab

Anthropic caves: stops being a leading lab

85

13

1

1

Will Apple power Siri using an AI thats the IP of Anthropic before 2026?

May 25, 4:58 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM

10%chance

324569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

526

76

Will OpenAI stick to its commitment to the same red lines as Anthropic for the US military using its AI by EOY 2026?

Feb 27, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

362098

OptionVotes

NO

YES

249

159

Major AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic will stop investing in MCP in 2026

Jan 2, 7:42 AMJan 8, 7:59 AM

48.34%chance

171790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1034

967

When will Anthropic or OpenAI offer a $1,000/month AI subscription?

Jun 5, 2:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10714

OptionProbability

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

69

51

42

25

Any American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?

Feb 25, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.54%chance

20668

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1251

796

Will Anthropic, before 2035, completely halt development of AI and attempt to persuade other organizations to do so?

Mar 7, 1:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.81%chance

14535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1399

866

Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?

Jun 3, 8:03 PMSep 30, 10:59 PM

10.45%chance

4231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

293

34

Which happens first? [Ads in AI][OpenAI vs Anthropic]

Feb 9, 7:33 PMFeb 10, 5:59 AM

6211

OptionProbability

OpenAI significantly expands the scope of Ads in ChatGPT

OpenAI removes ads in ChatGPT

Anthropic adds Ads in one of their primary AI apps (currently Claude)

70

20

10

How difficult will Anthropic say the AI alignment problem is?

Aug 8, 7:48 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8170

OptionProbability

Intermediate scenario

No such statement before 2030

Optimistic scenario

Pessimistic scenario

65

21

11

4

Will the Anthropic-Blackstone enterprise AI services firm name its first customer by Sept 30, 2026?

May 5, 6:40 PMSep 30, 10:00 PM

63.03%chance

386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

47

Will Anthropic be the first among the "Big Three" private AI labs to achieve profitable quarterly earnings?

Jun 15, 4:46 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

62.66%chance

535

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

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