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Prediction markets for Anthropic AI

Will Anthropic have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Aug 1, 5:55 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

3%chance

4352283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

56752

1748

Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Jun 21, 11:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5.71%chance

498516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4065

246

A major tech company, besides Anthropic, reports at least 98% of its code is AI-generated before April 1, 2026

Mar 11, 2:59 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

16.15%chance

366289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2279

439

Will a OpenAI, Anthropic, Google or Meta release an AI chatbot that has ads in the responses in 2025?

Dec 13, 8:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.86%chance

333573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1693

591

Will Anthropic announce one of their AI systems is ASL-3 before the end of 2025?

Aug 22, 8:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.85%chance

403340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

212

47

Will Apple power Siri using an AI thats the IP of Anthropic before 2026?

May 25, 4:58 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM

25.37%chance

262471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

280

124

Will Anthropic be the best on AI safety among major AI labs at the end of 2025?

Jul 4, 3:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

97.78%chance

22985

OptionVotes

NO

YES

664

15

Will Anthropic announce one of their AI systems is ASL-4 or higher before the end of 2025?

Aug 23, 6:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.74%chance

16629

OptionVotes

YES

NO

448

22

Will Anthropic, before 2035, completely halt development of AI and attempt to persuade other organizations to do so?

Mar 7, 1:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.07%chance

12335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1199

914

Has the development of AI been notably (> 50%) shaped by the anthropic principle until May 2024?

May 6, 1:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.21%chance

1200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

297

34

How difficult will Anthropic say the AI alignment problem is?

Aug 8, 7:48 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7135

OptionProbability

Intermediate scenario

No such statement before 2030

Optimistic scenario

Pessimistic scenario

56

29

11

4

Will Lucas Beyer (AI Researcher) work at either Anthropic or xAI before 2027?

Sep 12, 1:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.12%chance

3120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

45

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