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Prediction markets for Anthropic AI

Will Senator Scott Wiener be employed by an AI company like Anthropic within the next 12 months?

Aug 17, 11:50 PMAug 25, 6:59 AM

2%chance

52192987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7000

143

Will Anthropic have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Aug 1, 5:55 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

23.42%chance

3713418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18092

5509

A major tech company, besides Anthropic, reports at least 98% of its code is AI-generated before April 1, 2026

Mar 11, 2:59 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

16.16%chance

356288

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2278

439

Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Jun 21, 11:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

30%chance

404686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Will Apple power Siri using an AI thats the IP of Anthropic before 2026?

May 25, 4:58 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM

27.55%chance

202265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

262

130

The first Anthropic-trained AI system to qualify as ASL-3 qualifies because of misuse risks rather than autonomy risks

Oct 3, 2:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

89.7%chance

212044

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1993

798

Will Anthropic announce one of their AI systems is ASL-3 before the end of 2025?

Aug 22, 8:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

89.28%chance

361846

OptionVotes

NO

YES

289

35

Will a OpenAI, Anthropic, Google or Meta release an AI chatbot that has ads in the responses in 2025?

Dec 13, 8:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.33%chance

161266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

839

When will Anthropic first train an AI system that they claim qualifies as ASL-3?

Oct 3, 1:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131126

OptionProbability

2025 Q1

2024 Q4

Other

2024 Q3

2024 Q2

2024 Q1

2023 Q4

Never

30

20

16

11

8

6

4

4

Will Anthropic be the best on AI safety among major AI labs at the end of 2025?

Jul 4, 3:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

88.86%chance

17550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

282

35

Will Anthropic, before 2035, completely halt development of AI and attempt to persuade other organizations to do so?

Mar 7, 1:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.07%chance

12335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1199

914

Will Anthropic announce one of their AI systems is ASL-4 or higher before the end of 2025?

Aug 23, 6:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.49%chance

13321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

351

28

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