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Prediction markets for Anywhere

[Metaculus] On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

Apr 3, 11:02 AMJan 3, 7:59 AM

1%chance

710147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1619

23

Will the CDC announce that a "bird flu" (H5N1) epidemic exists anywhere in the United States in 2025?

Dec 6, 3:12 PMJan 1, 5:05 AM

11.07%chance

346493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2835

353

Does extraterrestrial life at least as complex as a fly exist anywhere in the solar system?

Dec 9, 2:09 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

7.35%chance

513532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1569

891

Will there be anywhere childfree city before 2030?

Aug 8, 2:49 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

10%chance

493247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1334

928

Radiological "dirty bomb" attack anywhere in the world by 2029-06-30

Jun 22, 3:26 PMJun 22, 10:59 PM

24.72%chance

171206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

573

Will an ungoverned free society exist anywhere on Earth for at least one year before 2040?

Feb 13, 11:44 PMJan 21, 9:59 PM

24.46%chance

23972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

953

Will an implantable device to treat tinnitus be available anywhere in the world before 2027?

May 17, 8:19 AMMay 25, 9:59 PM

15.48%chance

25858

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

968

Will a human clone be a registered citizen anywhere before 2030?

Mar 1, 12:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.44%chance

13669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1177

925

Will a commercial passenger airliner be hijacked anywhere in the world by the end of 2025?

Jul 15, 10:03 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

11.35%chance

11662

OptionVotes

YES

NO

305

177

Will a government sanctioned purge be introduced anywhere in the USA by 2100?

Sep 9, 5:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8.9%chance

12484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

447

101

Will Fairtrade Weed be available anywhere by 2030?

Feb 12, 4:47 PMDec 28, 11:59 PM

62.44%chance

370

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

80

Will anywhere in the US, UK, Canada, or EU mandate car kill switches that can be used by law enforcement before 2030?

Dec 28, 12:53 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.36%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

99

82

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