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Prediction markets for Anywhere

Does extraterrestrial life at least as complex as a fly exist anywhere in the solar system?

Dec 9, 2:09 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

5.47%chance

514032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2069

857

Will there be anywhere childfree city before 2030?

Aug 8, 2:49 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

10%chance

493247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1334

928

Radiological "dirty bomb" attack anywhere in the world by 2029-06-30

Jun 22, 3:26 PMJun 22, 10:59 PM

11.96%chance

192443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2713

369

Will an ungoverned free society exist anywhere on Earth for at least one year before 2040?

Feb 13, 11:44 PMJan 21, 9:59 PM

24.46%chance

23972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

953

Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?

Jun 6, 5:05 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

36.43%chance

15890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

Will an implantable device to treat tinnitus be available anywhere in the world before 2027?

May 17, 8:19 AMMay 25, 9:59 PM

15.48%chance

25858

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

968

Will a human clone be a registered citizen anywhere before 2030?

Mar 1, 12:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.96%chance

14719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

919

Will there be a megaquake anywhere in the world by March 31st, 2026?

Jan 4, 8:25 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

16.75%chance

10384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

45

Will XTC/MDMA be legalized anywhere in the world before 2035

Jun 16, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:01 PM

82%chance

4231

OptionVotes

NO

YES

182

46

Will Fairtrade Weed be available anywhere by 2030?

Feb 12, 4:47 PMDec 28, 11:59 PM

62.44%chance

370

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

80

Will an AI system legally act as a healthcare proxy anywhere in the US by 2032?

Nov 27, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

93

Will anywhere in the US, UK, Canada, or EU mandate car kill switches that can be used by law enforcement before 2030?

Dec 28, 12:53 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.36%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

99

82

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