AP Report News

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Dec 28, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.66%chance

349107226

OptionVotes

YES

2161

463

Will Trump Die in 2026?

Dec 21, 7:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.22%chance

333101126

OptionVotes

YES

4852

4519

Iran vs US (props)

Mar 7, 10:55 AMMar 7, 10:55 AM

39261385

OptionProbability

US military casualties exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader by March 31, 2026

Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major facilities causing ≥5% production/export disruption) on energy infrastructure in ≥1 Gulf Cooperation Council state by June 30, 2026.

At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of March 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.

US or Israel strikes an Iranian power plant by May 1, 2026 (UTC)

Mojtaba Khamenei dies by December 31, 2026

US ground troops are present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026 (UTC)

US ground troops enter Iran by May 1, 2026

Iran kinetically strikes the territory of any NATO member other than the US, excluding military bases, after March 22, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

Mojtaba Khamenei is confirmed dead by the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2026

Iran takes at least one non-Iranian citizen hostage, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet before January 1, 2027

Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium (approx. 440kg at 60% or higher purity) is reported missing by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, IAEA, or equivalent major international outlet by June 30, 2026

Brent crude closes above $100/bbl on more calendar days than below from March 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026

US launches a ground operation to seize highly enriched uranium from Fordow or another underground Iranian nuclear site before January 1, 2027, but fails to seize or destroy Iran's entire HEU stockpile per IAEA reports.

The US-Iran war is ongoing as of December 31, 2026

Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major desalination plants causing ≥5% national water supply disruption) on desalination infrastructure in Israel or ≥1 GCC state by December 31, 2026

US Congress passes a formal declaration of war on Iran or its proxies before January 1, 2027, reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major outlet.

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Turkey deploys combat troops or conducts airstrikes against Iranian forces by June 1, 2026

US military casualties exceed 500 by December 31, 2026

US attacks Kharg Island's oil terminals by March 31, 2026 (UTC)

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 80% of pre-conflict (Jan-Feb 2026) average daily levels by April 15, 2026 (UTC), per MarineTraffic, Reuters, or equivalent AIS data.

Iran inflicts widespread damage on US tech firm (e.g. Amazon, Microsoft) outposts or data centers in the Middle East by May 1, 2026

Reza Pahlavi is confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet to have entered Iran by December 31, 2026

Iranian regime (Islamic Republic government) collapses by July 1, 2026, via significant security force defections or opposition control of Tehran.

FBI or DHS publicly attributes a terrorist attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) causing 10+ deaths or equivalent major damage to Iran or Iran-backed groups (IRGC, Hezbollah, Houthis) by December 31, 2026

More than 100 US citizens die in a single attack by Iran or its proxies (excluding lone wolves without direct support), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026

US national average regular gasoline price exceeds $5/gallon by June 1, 2026

The FCC revokes a US broadcast station's license explicitly citing its coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

Iran launches a drone attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) by December 31, 2026

The US administration (via DOJ indictment or equivalent formal charge) indicts a US-based journalist or news organization with treason explicitly citing their coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

US military fatalities exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

Iran produces a functional nuclear weapon using primarily indigenous capabilities before January 1, 2027

US activates military draft by December 31, 2026

Brent crude's official daily settlement price exceeds $200/bbl before April 1, 2026

US or Israel detonates a nuclear weapon targeting Iran in 2026

Feb 14, 12:36 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

497887

OptionProbability

If Trump wins, Bitcoin will reach a new All Time High before the end of his term

If Trump wins, the S&P500 will reach a new all time high before the end of his term

If Trump wins, will the USA pass Ukraine aid at least once in his term

If Trump wins, will the USA conduct mass deportations before end of his term

If Biden/Dems Wins, Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Biden/dems wins, the S&P500 will reach a new all time high before the end of his term

If Trump Wins, Trump will NOT go to prison before the end of his life

If Trump Wins, he will be impeached again before the end of his life

If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] report he has attempted to pass legislation to increase presidential term limits (i.e. >2 terms) before Inauguration Day 2029

If Trump wins, the Ukraine/Russia war will end in a border settlement of some type before the end of his term

Biden will win AND Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Biden/dems wins, Bitcoin will reach a new All Time High before the end of his term

If Biden/Dems Wins, Trump will go to prison before the end of his life

If Trump Wins, Trump will NOT be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Trump wins, Biden will die before the end of Trump's term

If Trump Wins, Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Joe Biden Wins, Hunter Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Joe Biden's term

If Biden/Dems wins, they will expand the supreme court before the end of the term

If Trump Wins, Joe Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Trump's term

If Biden wins, Biden will die before the end of his term

If Trump wins, Hillary Clinton will be charged with a crime before the end of her life

If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] report that 1,000,000+ undocumented immigrants have been deported during 2025

If Trump Wins, Joe Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of either of their lives

If Biden wins, the Ukraine/Russia war will end in a border settlement of some type before the end of his term

If Dems/Biden wins, Trump will concede within 1 month

If Trump Wins, Hunter Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Trump's term

If Biden/Dems wins, Trump will concede within 1 week

If Biden/Dems wins, Trump will die before the end of their term

If Dems/Biden wins, China will invade Taiwan OR full blockade (or otherwise attack)

If Trump wins, Trump will die before the end of his term

If Trump wins, China will invade Taiwan OR full blockade (or otherwise attack)

If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] will be censored, prosecuted, nationalized, shut down, or prevented by government action from operating freely & openly in the US.

If Biden/Dems wins, we'll go to war in Israel/Palestine (troops on ground / in air)

If Trump wins, Russia attacks Poland

If Trump wins , the USA will leave NATO before the end of his term

If Biden/Dems wins, we'll go to war in Ukraine (troops on ground / in air) during his time in office

If Trump wins, they will expand the supreme court before the end of the term

If Dems/Biden wins, will Julian Assange be extradited to the USA by end of his term

If Trump wins, will Julian Assange be extradited to the USA by end of his term

100

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.31%chance

467164

OptionVotes

YES

987

940

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.01%chance

412724

OptionVotes

YES

178

169

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Mar 3, 3:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23%chance

312128

OptionVotes

YES

1003

883

AP Report News

Prediction markets for AP Report

Prediction markets for AP Report

Prediction markets for AP Report

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Will Trump Die in 2026?

Iran vs US (props)

Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Regime change in Cuba by 2030?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026?

Communist regime collapse in Cuba before January 1, 2027?

🫏🐘 What will happen depending on if Dems/Trump win the 2024 election? [ADD RESPONSES]

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?

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