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Top stories

Texas Tops AP Preseason College Football Poll With 25 First-Place Votes; Penn State Second, Ohio State Third

Texas Tops AP Preseason College Football Poll With 25 First-Place Votes; Penn State Second, Ohio State Third

Authors

24

4 months ago

US Sends Seven Warships Toward Venezuela, Prompting Regional Rift

US Foreign Policy

US Sends Seven Warships Toward Venezuela, Prompting Regional Rift

Authors

44

3 months ago

Prediction markets for AP

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

48%chance

4531094477

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11267

7882

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73%chance

294628706

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2722

2606

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Jun 27, 4:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38121725

OptionProbability

increased sanitation / hygiene / clean air+water

all other cuases

vaccines and antibiotics

medical ex-vaccines/antibiotics

improved diet

reduced war / homicide / execution / child abandonment

27

22

21

19

18

15

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

62.79%chance

6342394

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129891

76988

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

31.25%chance

5818669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14461

7017

Will a major dating app use LLMs to simulate conversations by Valentine's Day 2026?

Feb 14, 1:02 AMFeb 15, 7:59 AM

25.11%chance

278930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17417

5608

FDA approves YCT-529 male birth control pill before 2035?

Jul 1, 5:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.3%chance

54272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13540

7386

Which AP tests will I get a perfect score on, if any?

May 30, 4:50 PMDec 31, 5:47 PM

81212

OptionProbability

AP CS A

AP Calc BC

AP Physics 1

1

1

1

Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?

Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM

35.35%chance

7876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10313

9761

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

what grade am i gonna get in AP Seminar

Aug 20, 3:31 PMMay 30, 11:59 PM

5107

OptionProbability

A+

A-

B+

B-

C+

C-

D+

D-

F

Other

36

14

7

7

7

6

6

6

6

6

Which AP Subject Test for May 2026 will have the most students get the lowest score on it?

Jul 6, 4:28 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

345

OptionProbability

Other

US History

Physics 1

Physics 2

50

19

16

15

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