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Top stories

Texas Tops AP Preseason College Football Poll With 25 First-Place Votes; Penn State Second, Ohio State Third

Texas Tops AP Preseason College Football Poll With 25 First-Place Votes; Penn State Second, Ohio State Third

Authors

24

6 months ago

US Sends Seven Warships Toward Venezuela, Prompting Regional Rift

US Foreign Policy

US Sends Seven Warships Toward Venezuela, Prompting Regional Rift

Authors

44

5 months ago

Prediction markets for AP

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

46.74%chance

4671140701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11046

8127

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.55%chance

301639715

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2659

2584

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Jun 27, 4:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39130566

OptionProbability

increased sanitation / hygiene / clean air+water

all other cuases

vaccines and antibiotics

medical ex-vaccines/antibiotics

improved diet

reduced war / homicide / execution / child abandonment

26

21

20

18

17

11

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

65.7%chance

7051445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139076

72591

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

27.06%chance

6120269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16061

6360

FDA approves YCT-529 male birth control pill before 2035?

Jul 1, 5:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.6%chance

64322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13448

7436

Will the NCAA men’s basketball champion in 2026 continue the trend of being one of top 12 teams in the Week 6 AP poll?

Dec 26, 12:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.28%chance

21514

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2508

399

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

Sum of my AP scores in 2026

Feb 2, 5:10 PMJun 3, 6:59 AM

9553

OptionProbability

15

12-13

14

10-11

3-9

67

15

11

6

1

How many 5s will I score in this year's AP exams?

Jan 4, 10:38 PMMay 4, 3:59 AM

9505

OptionProbability

5

4

3

2

Other

54

22

16

4

4

what grade am i gonna get in AP Seminar

Aug 20, 3:31 PMMay 30, 11:59 PM

5107

OptionProbability

A+

A-

B+

B-

C+

C-

D+

D-

F

Other

36

14

7

7

7

6

6

6

6

6

Which AP Subject Test for May 2026 will have the most students get the lowest score on it?

Jul 6, 4:28 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

345

OptionProbability

Other

US History

Physics 1

Physics 2

50

19

16

15

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