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Top stories

Texas Tops AP Preseason College Football Poll With 25 First-Place Votes; Penn State Second, Ohio State Third

Texas Tops AP Preseason College Football Poll With 25 First-Place Votes; Penn State Second, Ohio State Third

Authors

24

1 year ago

US Sends Seven Warships Toward Venezuela, Prompting Regional Rift

US Foreign Policy

US Sends Seven Warships Toward Venezuela, Prompting Regional Rift

Authors

44

11 months ago

Prediction markets for AP

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

45.38%chance

4791149069

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10811

8402

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.06%chance

324668305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2713

2452

Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?

Dec 20, 2:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.27%chance

302433333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

911

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Jun 27, 4:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41130717

OptionProbability

increased sanitation / hygiene / clean air+water

all other cuases

vaccines and antibiotics

medical ex-vaccines/antibiotics

improved diet

reduced war / homicide / execution / child abandonment

26

21

20

18

17

11

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.33%chance

9558194

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144253

69986

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

30.97%chance

7023969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14560

6972

FDA approves YCT-529 male birth control pill before 2035?

Jul 1, 5:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.6%chance

64322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13448

7436

Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?

Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM

35.35%chance

7876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10313

9761

Will an LLM find a counterexample to the Erdős conjecture on APs by July 2027?

Jul 20, 1:42 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

8%chance

8724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

621

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

Will I become the TA for AP Calculus BC next year in our school?

Jul 7, 12:56 AMSep 15, 10:59 PM

52.75%chance

9168

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

95

How many fives will 2025-2026 Frazer AP Biology get?

May 4, 12:15 AMSep 15, 11:59 PM

350

OptionProbability

12 - 15

0 - 2

3 - 5

6 - 8

9 - 11

62

10

10

10

10

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