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Prediction markets for API

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

56.8%chance

5626924

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114667

87209

Will Claude 3.5 Opus be available via API by end of 2025?

Oct 22, 9:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.41%chance

5016569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5321

188

Will the fifth major model iteration of OpenAI contain the string "GPT-5" in its name (API)?

Jun 20, 4:24 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

93.31%chance

227035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2202

831

Will I find any serious bugs in my website's API within a week of release?

Jan 27, 6:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.92%chance

353339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2182

677

Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?

Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM

35.35%chance

7876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10313

9761

Will I misuse any API key entrusted to my Manifold search engine/dashboard before 2026?

Oct 21, 4:02 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.52%chance

10505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1216

959

Will Midjourney release a public API by the end of 2025?

Feb 11, 6:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.26%chance

15461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

544

Will API pose an existential threat to humanity before 2050?

Oct 2, 3:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7%chance

6430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

320

86

Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?

May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

35.95%chance

13376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

853

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM

59.5%chance

2232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

825

Will OpenAI provide API access to o5-mini within 30 days of releasing GPT-5?

Jul 27, 12:46 AMJan 1, 1:46 AM

16.85%chance

6171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

222

45

Will Twitter (or API of Twitter) allow search restricted JUST to verified accounts by EOY2028?

Dec 29, 1:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.84%chance

670

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

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