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Prediction markets for API

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

62.76%chance

6342444

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129806

77038

Will Claude 3.5 Opus be available via API by end of 2025?

Oct 22, 9:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1.01%chance

5525367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9901

101

Anthropic's API exceeds 99.6% uptime at end of 2025?

Sep 11, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

95.67%chance

175265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4702

213

Gemini 3 Deep Think available on API in 2025?

Nov 18, 4:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.56%chance

94457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2245

445

Will I find any serious bugs in my website's API within a week of release?

Jan 27, 6:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.43%chance

363349

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2069

687

Will Midjourney release a public API by the end of 2025?

Feb 11, 6:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.22%chance

192684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2550

43

Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?

May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

9.35%chance

172280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3094

404

Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing)

Jun 5, 1:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.03%chance

101172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

848

77

Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?

Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM

35.35%chance

7876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10313

9761

Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing)

Jun 5, 1:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.65%chance

10856

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

83

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM

59.5%chance

2232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

825

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.02%chance

3192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

981

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