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Prediction markets for API

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

66.99%chance

8957065

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143123

70539

Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026?

Apr 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.85%chance

356572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2131

828

Will I find any serious bugs in my website's API within a week of release?

Jan 27, 6:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.23%chance

373364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1914

702

Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?

Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM

35.35%chance

7876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10313

9761

Will Manifold's API Add Fractional Limit Orders?

Feb 13, 6:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

10588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM

59.5%chance

2232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

825

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.02%chance

3192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

981

Anthropic to release model not available through API in 2026

Jan 18, 11:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.75%chance

5157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Will Anthropic's API uptime fall below 98% in 2026?

Apr 19, 9:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.34%chance

3155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1143

875

Will API keys, private passwords, or other personal information be systematically leaked by moltbook users?

Feb 2, 9:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.77%chance

593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Twitter (or API of Twitter) allow search restricted JUST to verified accounts by EOY2028?

Dec 29, 1:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.84%chance

670

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

Will my QuickBin API be visibly used in a third-party project by 2030?

Dec 23, 7:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.7%chance

567

OptionVotes

NO

YES

273

210

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