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Prediction markets for APM

Will consequential atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?

Apr 2, 10:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

45.13%chance

19957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

927

Will atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2030?

Apr 2, 9:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

13.85%chance

16849

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1336

904

Will complex atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2030?

Apr 2, 9:53 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

14.9%chance

8363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

272

107

When will the LAX People Mover Open (extended)

Oct 19, 3:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4357

OptionProbability

Before January 2029

Before October 2028

Before July 2028

Before April 2028

Before January 2028

Before October 2027

Before July 2027

Before April 2027

75

73

69

56

54

46

45

39

Will consequential atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2030?

Apr 2, 10:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

12.82%chance

15314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

959

Will complex atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?

Apr 2, 9:54 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

42.16%chance

13278

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

903

can i become x+ rank in tetrio before 2027

Feb 22, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.85%chance

3264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1469

1054

Will atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?

Apr 2, 9:41 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59%chance

327

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

80

Will Indonesia participate officially in APMO 2027?

Oct 31, 6:11 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

12

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Can Henry (@arithmoquine) get above 170 APM in starcraft2?

Jul 4, 8:17 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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