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Prediction markets for APO

Will there be an apocalyptic event before 2030?

Sep 11, 4:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.29%chance

232524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2272

822

Will more manned Artemis missions land on the moon than during Apollo?

Jan 18, 10:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.36%chance

211225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1490

580

Will a Manhattan/ Apollo type project towards AGI/ ASI be launched? (or has been)

Feb 6, 6:25 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

52%chance

181145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1330

422

Will at least one of the "apocalypse markets" be resolved positively after the apocalypse?

Jun 10, 7:57 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

30.2%chance

18910

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

914

Will Nestlé publicly apologize for its role in past human rights abuses by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.59%chance

12834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1661

602

How many Apollo moonwalkers will be alive when the next moonwalker returns to Earth?

Feb 1, 2:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15605

OptionProbability

1

0

2

3

4

40

29

22

7

2

Will "The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist" be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 2027 Academy Award

Mar 27, 6:17 AMMar 21, 11:59 PM

41.57%chance

7506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1186

843

On April 13, 2029 will Apophis’ approach “thread the keyhole” such that it will impact earth 7 years later?

Apr 15, 12:23 AMApr 22, 3:59 AM

4.81%chance

7480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

676

135

Will there be a trend spike for the term "apocalypse cult" before 2030?

Mar 2, 12:29 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

74.25%chance

11400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

170

59

Will Apollo Research (new AI evals org) shut down before 2028?

Jun 5, 11:00 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.18%chance

15391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1247

877

Will Ukraine apologize for blowing up Nord stream 2 before 2030?

Aug 29, 11:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.09%chance

9329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

283

35

Will "Turning 20 in the probable pre-apocalypse " make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 23, 9:10 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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