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Prediction markets for APO

Will the Artemis 2 crew break Apollo 13's human altitude record?

Oct 10, 3:10 AMApr 30, 10:59 PM

64.52%chance

151699

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1349

742

By 2032, which countries will have citizens who have walked on the moon? (post-Apollo)

Jan 12, 2:58 AMJan 3, 7:29 PM

191694

OptionProbability

United States

China

Canada

Germany

France

Italy

Japan

United Kingdom

India

Russia

81

80

40

40

40

40

39

39

33

10

Will there be an apocalyptic event before 2030?

Sep 11, 4:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.59%chance

201501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1285

931

Will anyone break the Apollo 13 crew's record for furthest people from Earth before 2030?

Dec 15, 6:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80%chance

171245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

935

Will more manned Artemis missions land on the moon than during Apollo?

Jan 18, 10:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.36%chance

211225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1490

580

Will a Manhattan/ Apollo type project towards AGI/ ASI be launched? (or has been)

Feb 6, 6:25 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

52%chance

181145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1330

422

Will at least one of the "apocalypse markets" be resolved positively after the apocalypse?

Jun 10, 7:57 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

30.2%chance

18910

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

914

Will Nestlé publicly apologize for its role in past human rights abuses by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.74%chance

8545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1401

714

Will Apollo Research (new AI evals org) shut down before 2028?

Jun 5, 11:00 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.23%chance

13321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1197

892

Will DeepSeek CEO Liang Wenfeng (or DeepSeek) publish a public “apology + rectification” statement over DeepSeek’s model

Dec 16, 8:17 AMJun 30, 8:15 AM

13.97%chance

9212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

232

19

Will Elon Musk apologize for Grok being too left wing or 'woke' in the second half of 2026?

Oct 1, 5:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.36%chance

6192

OptionVotes

NO

YES

154

65

Will "Turning 20 in the probable pre-apocalypse " make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 23, 9:10 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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