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Prediction markets for APO

Will there be an apocalyptic event before 2030?

Sep 11, 4:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.31%chance

232274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2022

844

Will more manned Artemis missions land on the moon than during Apollo?

Jan 18, 10:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.36%chance

211225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1490

580

Will a Manhattan/ Apollo type project towards AGI/ ASI be launched? (or has been)

Feb 6, 6:25 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

52%chance

181145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1330

422

Will at least one of the "apocalypse markets" be resolved positively after the apocalypse?

Jun 10, 7:57 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

30.2%chance

18910

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

914

Will an apocalypse cult attempt to attack a TSMC facility before 2031?

Mar 7, 12:21 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

26.52%chance

17682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166

60

Will Nestlé publicly apologize for its role in past human rights abuses by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.74%chance

8545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1401

714

Will "The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist" be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 2027 Academy Award

Mar 27, 6:17 AMMar 21, 11:59 PM

41.57%chance

7506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1186

843

Will Apollo Research (new AI evals org) shut down before 2028?

Jun 5, 11:00 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.18%chance

15391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1247

877

Will DeepSeek CEO Liang Wenfeng (or DeepSeek) publish a public “apology + rectification” statement over DeepSeek’s model

Dec 16, 8:17 AMJun 30, 8:15 AM

5.06%chance

11319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

339

9

Who will be the last surviving Apollo astronaut? (both among moonwalkers and non-moonwalkers)

Dec 24, 7:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8247

OptionProbability

Charles Duke

Harrison Schmitt

James A. Lovell Jr.

Fred W. Haise Jr.

Buzz Aldrin

David Scott

Other

Frank Borman

Thomas K. Mattingly II

Thomas Stafford

29

19

15

12

9

5

4

3

2

2

Apoo Stock

Jun 5, 5:13 PMJun 5, 6:29 PM

578

OptionProbability

NO

YES

152

84

Will "Turning 20 in the probable pre-apocalypse " make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 23, 9:10 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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