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Prediction markets for APO

Will Trump apologize for bombing Iranian school?

Mar 12, 3:18 PMMar 31, 3:14 PM

2%chance

10834830

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7000

143

Will the Artemis 2 crew break Apollo 13's human altitude record?

Oct 10, 3:10 AMApr 30, 10:59 PM

83.12%chance

214543

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2219

451

Will there be an apocalyptic event before 2030?

Sep 11, 4:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.38%chance

211521

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1305

928

Will anyone break the Apollo 13 crew's record for furthest people from Earth before 2030?

Dec 15, 6:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80%chance

171245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

935

Will more manned Artemis missions land on the moon than during Apollo?

Jan 18, 10:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.36%chance

211225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1490

580

Is the biblical depiction of the mark during the apocalyptic times a faithful representation of what appears to be ...

Jan 12, 11:11 AMJan 12, 9:59 PM

3.23%chance

131191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1785

907

Will a Manhattan/ Apollo type project towards AGI/ ASI be launched? (or has been)

Feb 6, 6:25 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

52%chance

181145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1330

422

Will at least one of the "apocalypse markets" be resolved positively after the apocalypse?

Jun 10, 7:57 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

30.2%chance

18910

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

914

Will Nestlé publicly apologize for its role in past human rights abuses by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.74%chance

8545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1401

714

Will Apollo Research (new AI evals org) shut down before 2028?

Jun 5, 11:00 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.02%chance

14331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1207

889

Will "Turning 20 in the probable pre-apocalypse " make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 23, 9:10 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will ANY Gemini or Apollo astronaut become centenarian?

Mar 10, 4:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.64%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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