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Apollo Research News
Prediction markets for Apollo Research
Prediction markets for Apollo Research
10. The first real AI safety incident will occur.
Dec 27, 8:26 AM
Jan 3, 10:59 PM
21.83%
chance
23
3951
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1892
528
Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?
Mar 12, 8:26 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
34.98%
chance
10
965
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1363
734
Will "A List of 45+ Mech Interp Project Ideas from ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jul 22, 10:01 PM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
8.34%
chance
2
650
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1650
922
Will Apollo Research (new AI evals org) shut down before 2028?
Jun 5, 11:00 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
24.23%
chance
13
321
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1197
892
Will Nielsen acknowledge any TV program that isn't a Super Bowl or Mash as receiving >100m viewers by the start of 2030?
Feb 21, 3:46 AM
Jan 2, 5:59 AM
43.47%
chance
3
23
Option
Votes
YES
NO
96
84
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