OptionProbability
The Jews control at least one nation's government
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Imane Khelif is intersex
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
DHMO in the water supply
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
√-1 isn't real
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Santa is rigged
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
Annie Altman's abuse claims
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
Gamergate was right
Dead Internet theory
Groundhog Day is rigged
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
John McAfee didn't kill himself
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
China made covid 19 in a lab
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
China was not genociding Uyghurs
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
The CIA killed JFK
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
Sue Gray was a spy
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.
A cure for cancer has already been found
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
Bush did 9/11
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
Israel killed JFK
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle
Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
The NFL is rigged
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Harold Holt murdered
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Ogopogo is real
QAnon
Princess Diana was assassinated
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
Human didnt evolve from apes
Exercise is bad for your health
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
QR codes are satanic
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Rationalussy isn't real.
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
The Mandella Effect in general is real
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
US government is harboring aliens
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
Climate change isn’t real
The moon landing was fake
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.
The illuminati runs the world
*All* health care is net negative for health
Michelle Obama is a man
Brazilian money is not real
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
Yeti is real or similar creature
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
The earth is a dodecahedron
Skibidi Toilet is real
Q is Putin
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Africa isn't real
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
End of the world in 2012
Earth is hollow
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Flossing is bad for your health
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
12460
575
OptionProbability
Neuralink trials have happened with volunteer humans
New Pope after Francis
three or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved
five or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved
Bitcoin has reached $100K at some point
Gold has reached $2500/oz at some point
ETH Ethereum has reached $2800 USD (again)
Ethereum ETH has reached $4000 again
xkcd is still producing new comics at least once a month
Taylor Swift has been married
USA's Supreme Court is still 9 justices (does not get expanded)
publicly available ChatGPT or similar LLM can solve sudokus reliably
True Detective Season 5 released
Elon is still at least a partial owner of Twitter
Super Smash Bros Melee still a popular esport
Destiny is still regularly livestreaming
Putin still leader of Russia
Xi still leader of China
No humans on the moon since Apollo
Fortnite Crossover with the Simpsons
Zuckerberg still CEO of facebook/meta
Palworld is still able to be played through Steam
S&box fully released (Facepunch's new garry's mod like game)
George RR Martin has released the next GoT / ASOIAF book (The Winds of Winter)
Slavoj Zizek still giving public talks
a twitter account has reached 500M followers
Charles still King of UK
Mr Beast has 500M or more subscribers on Youtube
Hiroyuki Nishimura is still the owner of 4chan
One Piece manga is still going (original series)
The tenth drop of the pitch drop experiment has fallen
Team Fortress 2 is still receiving periodic blog posts / small updates
Flo is still the progressive mascot (the actress still working )
At least one of the other prediction market websites has gone out of business
Iceland, Norway, or Japan has banned whaling
the game Rust is still receiving regular updates with new content (not just bug / small fixes)
Winner of 2028 election is Democrat
2h marathon has been officially broken by a human
Avatar still has the record for highest worldwide movie gross on BoxOfficeMojo
Old School Runescape has released Sailing and at least 1 other new skill
@strutheo is still on Manifold, with the same username
Bitcoin has reached $150K at least one time
Hytale has fully released to the public (not just a beta)
Apex Legends is still receiving updates and servers are online
A new official weapon has been added to Team Fortress 2 since after 2017
The Nintendo Switch successor console has sold at least 65 million units
Total mana bet on Manifold has peaked to 10B in one day at least once
Family Guy has ended
the Rmax of the top non distributed supercomputer is at least 3000 PFlop/Sec (according to top500.org)
Kingdom Hearts 4 has released
Jared Fogel OR Fetty Wap is out of prison
prong.studio still operational and selling products
Chameleon Twist 3 has released (or another sequel)
Kojima's Physint game has released
Coyote vs Acme releases or leaks
Nintendo still manufacturing Switch
Weak AGI achieved, as indicated by the YES resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic
there will be a USA federal holiday in August (confirmed happening in 2028 or next year in 2029)
Magic the Gathering card has sold for $1M or more (other than the One Ring!)
Petco will have filed for bankruptcy
Manifold MAU has spiked to 40k+ at least two separate weeks/occasions
A North American team has won a Dota 2 International for the first time since 2015
At least one of Paul Biya, Pope Francis, Ali Khamenei is still in power
Manifold has sold $40K or more mana in the last 30 days before market close
A second feature length South Park movie has released (like South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut)
jd vance has been president or wins the election to be one
at least one spider man movie releases each year
Star Citizen has fully released to the public (not just a beta)
Chat GPT 7 or higher available for public use
Annoying Orange youtube channel is still uploading at least one video a month
Palestine / Israel will have come to an agreement on borders (post Oct 7)
Russia AND ROC are both forbidden from entering the Olympics still
Nintendo ends online play and other online services for Switch (as they did for WiiU and 3DS on April 8th 2024)
Rabbit is still selling R1 (or a sequel product) and it can be purchased by the average consumer
Amazon #1 book is by a politician or musician
Manifold has collapsed / bankrupt at least once already
The New England Patriots have either won a Super Bowl (2024-2027 seasons) or clinched the division (2028)
Build a Bear will have filed for bankruptcy or been bought
Ukraine-Russia war still ongoing
X (Twitter) brand has changed again (either back to Twitter or something other than X)
Amazon #1 book is a self-help book
1200 or more official pokemon
NFL has an official expansion team in Europe somewhere
I'll be dead.
China - Taiwan war / invasion begins
doomsday clock is 100 seconds or more from midnight
There will be a breakthrough in nuclear weaponry
Taylor Swift has been divorced
Dwarf Fortress ceases active development
China has landed a human on the moon
All 9 current Supreme Court justices from today (Jan 2024) are still serving
Turkey has a higher GDP (PPP) than the United Kingdom
a tenth country is confirmed to have nuclear weapons
Mana can be donated to charity through Manifold at the same rate (1 cent = 1 mana)
Chat GPT 8.5 or higher released for public use
someone has reached 2900 FIDE chess rating
a paper for LK99 or another room temperature superconductor is peer reviewed and replicated
The record for youngest Best Actor Academy Award Broken (Adrien Brody, The Pianist, age 29)
Trump has served at least 1 full day in jail/prison (not at home)
Josh Shapiro is the President-elect of the United States
JB Pritzker is the President-elect of the United States
Gretchen Whitmer is the President-elect of the United States
Jared Polis is the President-elect of the United States
No humans exist
Manifold Love is still getting updates or community support/events
Jimmy Carter is still alive
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7
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0
0
OptionProbability
safely returns to Earth
Will attempt to say something momentous
Had been into space as of 2023
Right handed
Is a pilot (but not necessarily for the mission)
American citizen
Have child/ren
military or ex military background
Isn't white
Is the mission commander
Christian
Have a PhD
Will step out with their right foot first
Have 2+ bachelors degrees
video recording is available of them falling over on the lunar surface (within 1 year of moonwalk)
Will attempt to say something momentous, and it's generally considered not to have been momentous 12 months after landing
Born in a state that majority voted for Trump in 2024 election
First moon-words will be a joke (e.g. "oh, did I leave the oven on?" or "hey i can see my house from up here!" or even "oh wow there's an alien life form waving at me!")
Will attempt to say something momentous, and it's generally considered so 12 months after landing
Will be recorded (e.g. interview, podcast transcript) dissing moon landing hoaxers, either before or within 12 months of moonwalk
Will have a nickname that doesn't directly derive from their real name (eg Buzz)
Is 68 inches or taller
Male
is 50 years old or older (at time of moonwalk)
Films a tiktok (or similar short format film) on the lunar surface featuring at least some dancing (inside the lander counts) (video is available within 1 year of moonwalk)
Chinese Citizen
No tertiary qualification (honorary degrees don't count)
Will not be a single person; two or more people will take the first step (almost) simultaneously
Expressed doubt on whether the Apollo landings happened (digging up an embarrassing tweet from when they were 13 counts)
bald
has some kind of neural implant
is 30 years old or younger (at time of moonwalk)
Will be recorded attempting a backflip on the lunar surface (video is available within 1 year of moonwalk)
Ginger
Is transgender
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15
12
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1
OptionProbability
While humans are on the lunar surface, a capsule is still in orbit
A woman is onboard
More than 50 million Americans watch the moon landing
It is on a NASA mission
Rocket was launched from US soil
An American citizen is onboard
Uses a rocket designed by Space X
There are no reported incidents which disrupt the mission’s original planning & timeline (post-takeoff)
At least 1 person with a citizenship other than to the US is aboard (could be a dual-citizen)
3 or more humans land on the lunar surface
The entire mission takes less than 8 days, from astronaut takeoff to landing on Earth (Apollo 11’s timing)
90
63
62
58
58
56
56
51
45
33
17
OptionProbability
Vaccines are safe
JFK was assassinated by Lee Harvey Oswald acting alone.
The Holocaust was real and ~6M Jewish people were murdered in it
Climate change is real and caused by humans
The Apollo moon landings were genuine
The Earth is round
17
15
14
8
8
2
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1144
935
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1594
530
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1330
422
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1188
841
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1197
892
OptionProbability
Other
Ardian
Apollo
Blackstone
Lexington
56
33
6
3
2
