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Prediction markets for Apple Intelligence

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.33%chance

9558194

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144253

69986

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

27.17%chance

1459535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6060

4388

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.04%chance

222899

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2216

453

Will Apple ship a Gemini-powered Siri update to iPhones in 2026?

Mar 26, 11:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52%chance

121212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

243

149

When will Apple, Inc. turn Apple Intelligence into a paid, premium service and begin charging users for access?

Jun 11, 2:34 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

161081

OptionProbability

2028+ or never

2027

2026

2025

2024

55

21

11

10

3

Kramer Intelligence overtakes Apple Intelligence by the end of 2026?

Jul 4, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.28%chance

6213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

313

32

Will Apple announce any camera-equipped AI wearable before 2027?

May 9, 11:11 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

20.35%chance

5120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

68

Will Model Intelligence diverge from consumer market share?

Apr 14, 12:44 AMApr 14, 12:30 AM

665

OptionProbability

Yes

N/A (unclear)

No

60

23

17

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMAug 20, 7:59 PM

68.73%chance

212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

97

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