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Prediction markets for Applications

Military applications of neutrinos by 2050?

Feb 24, 6:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.71%chance

3845588

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1055

500

Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?

Jan 17, 6:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.74%chance

5813755

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1084

653

Will the Lumina oral probiotic treatment reduce the rate of cavities by at least 50% in the 4 years after application?

Apr 10, 6:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.21%chance

879123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1637

1199

Canada submits formal application for EU membership before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:47 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

6.27%chance

288492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3871

259

Will LK-99 be used in any commercial application before 2030?

Aug 7, 5:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.5%chance

201341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1765

870

Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?

Nov 23, 12:02 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM

26.66%chance

51141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1659

603

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.09%chance

5532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

940

If AI wipes out humanity, will it resolve applicable markets correctly?

Jul 2, 8:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.05%chance

18461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

943

Commercial application of quantum pseudo-telepathy by 2030?

Jun 29, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.58%chance

11238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

955

[Carlini questions] Majority of consumer AI applications will operate autonomously on multi-step tasks by year

Mar 24, 2:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

570

OptionProbability

By 1st Jan 2030

By 1st Jan 2029

By 1st Jan 2028

By 1st Jan 2027

By 1st Jan 2026

66

60

46

44

16

Will "Downstream applications as validation of inte..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 16, 4:34 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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