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Prediction markets for Applications

Military applications of neutrinos by 2050?

Feb 24, 6:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.71%chance

3845588

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1055

500

Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?

Jan 17, 6:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.84%chance

6213928

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

787

Canada submits formal application for EU membership before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:47 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

7.53%chance

308572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3509

286

Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?

Nov 23, 12:02 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM

90.22%chance

63575

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3037

329

Will LK-99 be used in any commercial application before 2030?

Aug 7, 5:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.5%chance

201341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1765

870

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

If AI wipes out humanity, will it resolve applicable markets correctly?

Jul 2, 8:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.05%chance

19638

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

943

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.09%chance

5532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

940

Will any EU country have an agreement with external countries to study asylum seeker applications abroad by end of 2026?

Aug 4, 7:39 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.48%chance

9309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

232

46

Commercial application of quantum pseudo-telepathy by 2030?

Jun 29, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.14%chance

12288

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

949

my application to LWCW 2027 is accepted?

Sep 16, 6:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.34%chance

376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

983

Will "Downstream applications as validation of inte..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 16, 4:34 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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