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Prediction markets for Applications

Military applications of neutrinos by 2050?

Feb 24, 6:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.66%chance

3345209

OptionVotes

NO

YES

978

886

Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?

Jan 17, 6:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.74%chance

5813755

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1084

653

Will the Lumina oral probiotic treatment reduce the rate of cavities by at least 50% in the 4 years after application?

Apr 10, 6:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.21%chance

879123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1637

1199

Canada submits formal application for EU membership before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:47 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

6.27%chance

288492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3871

259

Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?

Nov 23, 12:02 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM

26.66%chance

51141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1659

603

Will LK-99 be used in any commercial application before 2030?

Aug 7, 5:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.03%chance

201091

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1515

895

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

If AI wipes out humanity, will it resolve applicable markets correctly?

Jul 2, 8:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.05%chance

18461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

943

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.33%chance

5363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

811

Commercial application of quantum pseudo-telepathy by 2030?

Jun 29, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.58%chance

11238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

955

Having more siblings will be a benefit for Chinese university student applicants

Aug 20, 8:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.7%chance

586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

113

Will "Downstream applications as validation of inte..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 16, 4:34 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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