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Applications News

Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?

Jan 22, 4:05 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.22%chance

2653835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

40660

7821

Military applications of neutrinos by 2050?

Feb 24, 6:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.66%chance

3345209

OptionVotes

NO

YES

978

886

Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?

Jan 17, 6:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

5513139

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1228

468

Will the Lumina oral probiotic treatment reduce the rate of cavities by at least 50% in the 4 years after application?

Apr 10, 6:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.21%chance

879123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1637

1199

4. Web agents will go mainstream, becoming the next major killer application in consumer AI.

Dec 27, 8:15 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

45.1%chance

295557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

906

Will causality be an important ingredient in major commercial applications of AI by the end of 2025?

Aug 24, 11:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.91%chance

272027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1611

857

Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?

Nov 23, 12:02 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM

26.66%chance

51141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1659

603

Will Manifold make any changes to liquidity application on Multiple Choice or Set markets before 2026?

Nov 6, 12:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.22%chance

51050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2050

488

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

If AI wipes out humanity, will it resolve applicable markets correctly?

Jul 2, 8:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.93%chance

17459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

946

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.33%chance

5363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

811

Will "Downstream applications as validation of inte..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 16, 4:34 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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