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Prediction markets for Applied Markets

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

4.7%chance

304226846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3805

789

Will Venezuelans be better off at the end of 2026?

Jan 3, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.62%chance

385193398

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

841

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Dec 8, 7:32 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

13.07%chance

296153064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1910

854

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

33.2%chance

297114829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

1199

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

49.28%chance

215110789

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13048

3140

Will Anthropic escape the "supply chain risk" designation by EOY 2026?

Feb 27, 11:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.08%chance

22850019

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15809

7952

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

57.98%chance

18941852

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9995

9955

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.62%chance

11836884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14050

6693

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

43.16%chance

254435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10737

9394

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.59%chance

241557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

936

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32930

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

57

43

"Prediction Markets Applied to Finance" by Louis Clouatre-Latraverse - Discussion

Oct 4, 5:14 PM

00

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