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Prediction markets for Applied Markets

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

3.65%chance

350308151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4715

749

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Dec 8, 7:32 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

29%chance

348176669

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

904

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

51.66%chance

351142219

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1555

749

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

47.99%chance

227122509

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12922

3274

Will the Kendrick Lamar/South Park movie get a U.S. theatrical release date announced in 2026?

Jun 24, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.62%chance

4144060

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33982

11117

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.47%chance

19242620

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10568

9573

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.44%chance

12638679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12739

8335

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

18.26%chance

5522494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20673

5320

Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?

Mar 24, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

185405

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10000

10000

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

241567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

926

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

321030

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

57

43

"Prediction Markets Applied to Finance" by Louis Clouatre-Latraverse - Discussion

Oct 4, 5:14 PM

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