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Prediction markets for Applied Markets

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

4.3%chance

299224934

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4103

774

Will Venezuelans be better off at the end of 2026?

Jan 3, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62%chance

350179628

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1278

783

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Dec 8, 7:32 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

10%chance

289149647

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2395

791

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

39.61%chance

18689561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12113

4317

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

61.74%chance

18440175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10901

9361

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.2%chance

11636496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14299

6435

Will Israel strike Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of 2026?

Jul 7, 8:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.29%chance

397272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1314

762

Will we hire a Community Manager by Pi Day?

Jan 15, 10:36 PMMar 15, 11:59 PM

72.99%chance

274369

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7475

3519

Would the $100k H-1B fee apply to intl. students graduating in the U.S. or switching from OPT?

Sep 23, 12:55 PMJan 20, 1:52 PM

36.6%chance

61975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6581

3799

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

45.04%chance

181847

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10307

9733

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

231547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

926

"Prediction Markets Applied to Finance" by Louis Clouatre-Latraverse - Discussion

Oct 4, 5:14 PM

00

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