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Prediction markets for Applied Markets

Will we get AGI before 2026?

Dec 10, 1:58 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

3.62%chance

337268418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3877

887

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

13.42%chance

281187213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1508

982

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Dec 8, 7:32 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

30.29%chance

253122208

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

863

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

51%chance

25194543

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1539

761

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

65%chance

17435675

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11829

8825

Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

May 11, 12:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19%chance

3229069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

48

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.46%chance

5615892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12954

9368

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.47%chance

3512403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19709

5074

Will I get a job in the United States in 2025?

Jun 30, 1:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.55%chance

169526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11155

8964

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

44.45%chance

141602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10441

9624

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

231547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

926

"Prediction Markets Applied to Finance" by Louis Clouatre-Latraverse - Discussion

Oct 4, 5:14 PM

00

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